Wednesday 26 November 2025

Weekly Market Update

Overview

Last week, global markets were mixed as investors weighed economic data, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments. In developed markets, U.S. stocks fell on concerns over high valuations and AI spending, despite strong earnings and a better-than-expected jobs report, while European and UK markets declined amid rate cut uncertainty and cautious consumer sentiment. Japan’s markets were lower as tech stocks dropped, though a new stimulus package provided some support, while inflation and currency weakness added pressure. In emerging markets, China’s stocks fell on AI valuation worries and ongoing property market weakness, whereas India’s Nifty 50 edged higher despite volatility and a weaker rupee. MENA markets remained resilient, with steady equity and deal activity, strong M&A flows, and continued sukuk issuance. Commodities saw gold dip early on fading rate cut expectations but stabilize later, while oil declined on hopes for a Russia–Ukraine peace deal. The U.S. dollar strengthened, particularly against the yen, following strong payroll data, reflecting investor focus on interest rate expectations and global economic developments. Overall, markets remain cautious, navigating high valuations, mixed economic signals, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks, while investors continue to seek pockets of growth and stability across regions and asset classes.

The Week Ahead

Mon: EUR, ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Tue: USD, Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
Wed: USD, Crude Oil Inventories
Thu: JPY, Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
Fri: EUR, German CPI (MoM) (Nov)

Outlook: The tug-of-war between global economic growth and inflation appears to have reached a more feasible balancing point. Across equity markets, the narrowing of the gulf between growth and value is likely to continue as a greater number of industries start to benefit from higher earnings and improving monetary and fiscal policies. 2025 likely will not be a year of robust economic (GDP growth: U.S. growth is forecast to grow at a modest 1.5%-2.5%, with the Eurozone and Chinese growth lagging. In this environment, investors could benefit from an increased allocation towards value names whilst avoiding an overexposure to growth. Nonetheless, we continue to buy high-quality, profitable, blue-chip equities with strong balance sheets and positive free-cashflow yields. Fixed-income securities also offer attractive yields at these levels, without subjecting portfolios to much downside risk. Emerging market equities and small companies are also available at attractive valuations relative to US Blue Chips. The overall outlook for equities remains cautiously optimistic, supported by a more dovish US Federal Reserve and a resilient US economy, though global risks and sector-specific performance will be closely watched.

Asset class forecasts*

[wpdatatable id=14]
*Source: Goldman Sachs (GS) Global Investment Research and GSAM as of January 2021.

Developed Markets

North America
Last week, U.S. markets ended lower despite solid economic data and strong earnings reports. Investors remained cautious about high valuations and whether heavy spending on artificial intelligence will ultimately deliver the expected profits. NVIDIA and Walmart both reported stronger-than-expected results, but sentiment still turned negative, dragging major indices down. The delayed September jobs report showed improved hiring but also a rise in unemployment to a four-year high, adding to economic uncertainty. Markets are now focused on the December Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations of a rate cut increasing sharply compared to the previous week. Falling Treasury yields supported bond markets, although municipal bonds and high yield debt underperformed due to heavy supply and weaker risk appetite. Overall, the week highlighted investors’ growing concerns about expensive markets, mixed economic signals, and the sustainability of the recent rally.

Europe & UK
Last week, European markets fell as worries about expensive AI-related stocks and fading expectations of a U.S. rate cut weighed on sentiment. The STOXX Europe 600 Index dropped over 2%, with major indexes in France, Italy, Germany, and the UK also declining. Economic data was mixed: eurozone business activity continued to grow at a steady pace, helped by strong services performance, while manufacturing slipped slightly below the expansion line. Consumer confidence in the region held at its highest level in eight months, though it remains negative, showing that households are still cautious. In the UK, inflation eased to 3.6%, boosting expectations for another rate cut in December, but the Bank of England remained hesitant due to wage growth staying well above target. Policymakers signaled that more clarity on disinflation is needed before cutting rates. Overall, Europe saw steady economic momentum but weaker stock performance as investors reacted to global rate concerns and stretched valuations across key sectors.

Japan
Last week, Japanese markets declined, with the Nikkei and TOPIX falling as AI-related tech stocks dropped sharply amid worries about overvalued equities. The government approved a major stimulus package worth around USD 135 billion, aimed at boosting growth through spending, tax breaks, and strategic investments in sectors such as AI and shipbuilding, while also helping households cope with inflation. However, concerns over Japan’s rising fiscal burden weighed on the yen, which weakened further, and pushed 10-year government bond yields to multi-year highs. Inflation remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, rising 3.0% year over year, as the weaker yen increased import costs, while GDP contracted less than expected in the third quarter, highlighting weak external demand and the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports. Investors are balancing optimism about stimulus measures with caution over fiscal sustainability, currency weakness, and the broader economic slowdown, leaving markets under pressure despite policy support.

Emerging Markets

China
Last week, Chinese stock markets fell, following losses on Wall Street, as concerns over overvalued AI-focused stocks weighed on investor sentiment. The CSI 300 Index dropped 3.77%, the Shanghai Composite fell 3.90%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 5.09%. This marked the second consecutive week of declines for the CSI 300, which had reached a nearly four-year high earlier in November amid optimism about the tech sector. No major economic indicators were released, but the government is reportedly considering measures to support the struggling property market, including mortgage subsidies for first-time buyers, higher income tax rebates, and reduced home transaction costs. The housing market slump, now in its fourth year, worsened in the third quarter, with new and existing home prices falling at the fastest pace in over a year. The property downturn remains a key drag on growth, fueling deflationary pressures and raising concerns about the impact on banks’ asset quality, with further weakness expected in 2026. Overall, investor sentiment remains fragile, as markets weigh the challenges in the property sector against potential policy support and the broader outlook for China’s technology and economic recovery.

India
Last week, Indian equity markets ended on a modestly positive note, with the Nifty 50 rising 0.73%, though the week saw high volatility and a sharp pullback on Friday due to mixed global cues, domestic developments such as the Bihar election results, and profit booking. Broader market indices underperformed, with the Midcap and Smallcap indices falling 0.77% and 1.92%, respectively, while the India VIX surged 12%, reflecting elevated market uncertainty. The Nifty 50 was supported by strong earnings from select companies, but better-than-expected U.S. employment data dampened hopes of a near-term rate cut. The Indian rupee weakened to a new low of 89.41 against the U.S. dollar amid fading Fed rate cut expectations and uncertainty over the India–U.S. trade deal, contributing to continued selling pressure. Sector-wise, cyclical areas lagged, with metals (-4.21%) and realty (-3.85%) among the weakest, while energy, defence, and pharma also drifted lower. On the upside, IT showed resilience (+0.56%), supported by global demand, and gains were seen in consumption (+1.16%), banking (+0.83%), and financial services (+0.62%).

MENA
Last week, MENA markets showed signs of resilience as liquidity and deal activity remained robust across the region. Equity related issuances totalled about US$10.4 billion during the first nine months of 2025 — down in proceeds compared with last year, but the number of transactions rose 12% year on-year, suggesting steady investor activity despite global uncertainty. Meanwhile, mergers & acquisitions across the region have surged: the first half of 2025 saw roughly 500 deals valued at about US$69.1 billion, with a notable rise in cross border transactions, especially from the UAE and Saudi Arabia. On the debt front, the largest economy in the Gulf continued issuing sukuk — for example, one recent issuance raised SR 5.83 billion — reflecting ongoing domestic debt market activity. Though macroeconomic headwinds and global market volatility remain, the pace of deal making and capital market activity suggest investors are cautiously confident about opportunities in the region.

Commodities and Forex

Commodities
Last week, gold and oil markets faced pressure amid shifting economic and geopolitical signals. Gold dipped early as expectations for a December rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve eased, with a stronger dollar and rising yields limiting upside. However, by the end of the week, bullion stabilized as investors balanced hawkish Fed comments with ongoing concerns about global economic growth. Oil prices extended their decline, driven by optimism over a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which could increase global supply if sanctions are eased. Brent and WTI crude both fell roughly 3% over the week, reaching one-month lows, as broader risk-off sentiment and easing supply concerns weighed on the market. Overall, both commodities reflected investor caution, navigating between policy expectations and geopolitical developments.

Currencies
Last week, the U.S. dollar strengthened across most major currency pairs following the release of a stronger than expected delayed U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report for September — a reaction that underscored investor confidence in the resilience of the U.S. labour market. The dollar’s gains were particularly sharp against the Japanese yen, as the yen slumped amid renewed concern over currency stability and potential central bank moves. This rally in the dollar came even as markets remain watchful of broader global economic developments and shifting expectations for future interest rate moves in the U.S. and abroad.

Commodities

Name21/11/2531/10/2530/09/2531/12/24
WTI Oil ($/barrel)$58.06$60.98$62.37$71.72
Brent Oil ($/barrel)$62.56$65.07$67.02$74.64
Gold ($/oz)$4065.14$4002.92$3858.96$2624.50
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu)$4.58$4.12$3.30$3.63

Currency

Name21/11/2531/10/2530/09/2531/12/24
Euro (€/$)1.15131.15371.17341.0354
Pound (ÂŁ/$)1.30991.31521.34461.2516
Japanese Yen (ÂĄ/$)156.41153.99147.90157.20
Swiss Franc (CHF/€)0.93080.92830.93450.9401
Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY/$)7.10527.11947.12247.2993

Index Valuations

Index Return

Name1 Week (%)Month-to-Date (%)Quarter-to-Date (%)Year-to-Date (%)
S&P 500-1.91%-3.37%-1.11%13.54%
NASDAQ Composite-2.71%-6.06%-1.63%16.04%
DJ Industrial Average-1.85%-2.64%-0.11%10.35%
S&P 400-0.64%-1.84%-2.30%3.32%
Russell 2000-0.75%-4.35%-2.62%7.49%
S&P 500 Equal Weight-0.85%-1.14%-2.08%7.60%
STOXX Europe 50 (€)-3.13%-2.55%-0.07%16.06%
STOXX Europe 600 (€)-2.19%-1.61%0.94%14.34%
MSCI EAFE Small Cap-2.73%-2.95%-3.73%24.21%
FTSE 100 (ÂŁ)-1.58%-1.53%2.50%20.61%
FTSE MIB (€)-3.03%-1.19%-0.15%29.62%
CAC 40 (€)-2.29%-1.70%1.26%11.68%
DAX (€)-3.29%-3.62%-3.30%15.99%
SWISS MKT (CHF)-0.01%3.25%4.32%12.39%
TOPIX (ÂĄ)-1.85%-1.02%5.11%18.41%
Nifty 500.61%1.35%6.12%10.25%
Hang Seng (HKD)-5.09%-2.65%-5.94%25.72%
MSCI World-2.29%-3.26%-1.30%16.32%
MSCI China Free-5.38%-4.73%-8.43%26.47%
MSCI EAFE-3.40%-2.53%-1.37%24.13%
MSCI EM-3.71%-4.76%-0.77%27.20%
MSCI Brazil (BRL)-1.56%3.22%4.90%29.14%
MSCI India (INR)0.14%1.01%5.42%7.07%

Fixed Income

Name1 Week (%)Month-to-Date (%)Quarter-to-Date (%)Year-to-Date (%)
Bloomberg US Aggregate0.45%0.24%0.86%7.05%
Bloomberg Global Aggregate-0.28%-0.45%-0.70%7.15%
Bloomberg Euro Aggregate-0.92%-0.65%-1.62%12.76%
Bloomberg US High Yield0.03%-0.22%-0.06%7.15%
Bloomberg Euro High Yield (€)-0.01%-0.31%-0.24%3.92%

Blend Fund Performance Year To Date

(24/11/25)1 Week (%)1 Month (%)6 Months (%)Year-to-Date (%) 1 Year (%) 2 Years (%)
Aditum Global Discovery-2.25%-1.43%8.86%14.68%11.95%30.47%
Aditum India Explorer Fund-1.22%-1.41%-0.04%15.12%--
Ashoka WhiteOak India Opportunities-2.07%-1.54%-0.38%-2.67%-1.22%-
BlackRock GF World Healthscience USD1.05%4.23%15.76%11.94%7.36%18.40%
Emirates Global Sukuk-0.07%-0.04%4.23%6.33%6.08%12.60%
Emirates MENA Fixed Income-0.16%-0.31%7.56%8.84%8.20%16.67%
Emirates MENA Top Companies-1.46%-4.03%0.67%0.74%1.78%6.42%
Franklin Gold and Precious Metals USD1.72%4.58%50.09%141.24%117.87%207.12%
Harris Associates Global Equity-0.20%-3.61%4.98%10.93%8.47%19.52%
Loomis Sayles Global Growth Equity-0.51%-6.90%7.99%13.41%13.50%44.19%
Loomis Sayles Multisector Income0.35%-0.12%4.97%7.04%6.84%18.29%
PineBridge Japan Small Cap Equity-0.54%-3.22%4.11%17.69%19.51%16.86%
UBAM 30 Global Leaders Equity0.43%-2.13%5.11%7.21%5.18%16.21%
iShares US Corporate bond Index0.52%-0.46%6.27%7.44%6.35%15.98%
iShares Developed World Index-0.19%-1.61%13.64%17.07%15.23%46.70%

Direct Fund

Nexus Blend Funds

(24/11/25)1 Week (%) 1 Month (%) 6 Months (%) Year-to-Date (%) 1 Year (%) 2 Years (%)
US Dollar High Risk Blend-0.49%-2.15%9.46%15.57%14.23%37.45%
US Dollar Medium-High Risk Blend-0.23%-1.36%10.90%15.69%14.06%38.48%
US Dollar Medium Risk Blend-0.20%-1.22%10.36%14.53%12.89%35.57%
US Dollar Medium-Low Risk Blend-0.06%-0.83%9.34%13.84%12.10%29.96%
US Dollar Low Risk Blend0.00%-0.69%8.53%12.11%11.07%23.61%

Zurich Mirror Funds

(24/11/25) 1 Week (%) 1 Month (%)6 Months (%)Year-to-Date(%) 1 Year (%) 2 Years (%)
Canaccord Genuity Balanced-0.65%-1.30%6.22%7.98%6.83%21.44%
Canaccord Genuity Growth-0.86%-1.57%7.55%8.75%7.55%24.49%
Canaccord Genuity Opportunity-1.01%-1.63%8.13%11.01%9.75%29.06%
Emirates Emerging Market Debt-0.49%-0.20%6.88%6.09%5.40%22.65%
Emirates Islamic Global Balanced-1.56%-1.13%8.06%9.81%9.67%21.34%
Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity0.15%-3.74%9.97%7.86%9.67%50.52%

* Data is lagged by 1 day.
**   Data is lagged by 2 days.