Wednesday 15 October 2025
Weekly Market Update
Overview
During the last week, global markets were mixed amid economic, political, and central bank developments. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Dow hit record highs while the Nasdaq dipped slightly, supported by strong corporate earnings and AI optimism but tempered by inflation at 2.7%, high valuations, and a potential government shutdown; bond yields rose, gold surged above $4,000, and oil prices increased modestly. European and UK markets showed cautious gains, with the FTSE 100 reaching a record high, but inflation, slow wage growth, rising unemployment, and modest Eurozone growth limited upside, while the ECB held rates at 2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose nearly 5% on optimism over new political leadership, but the yen weakened as the BOJ faced a challenging rate decision amid mixed economic data. In emerging markets, China’s stocks rebounded despite U.S. trade tensions, supported by AI and semiconductor sectors, while the PBOC kept rates steady; India’s rupee stayed weak near ₹88.80/USD but was stabilized by RBI interventions, equities fluctuated with IT gains, and inflation fell to 1.54%, hinting at a possible rate cut. MENA markets were mixed, with Dubai and Abu Dhabi falling slightly while Saudi Arabia and Qatar rose modestly. Commodities saw modest oil gains (Brent $63.54, WTI $59.71), copper rallied to $11,000 per ton, and agricultural commodities were mixed. In currencies, the U.S. dollar weakened against the yen and dollar index, the euro rose to $1.1731, the pound recovered to $1.3436, the yen traded between 147.73–149.75 amid BOJ discussions, and the Indian rupee hit a record low of ₹88.76/USD, reflecting a mix of domestic economic trends, central bank policies, and global geopolitical developments.
The Week Ahead:
Mon: INR, CPI (YoY) (Sep)
Tue: EUR, German CPI (MoM) (Sep)
Wed: USD, Crude Oil Inventories
Thu: GBP, GDP (MoM) (Aug)
Fri: USD, Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
Outlook: The tug-of-war between global economic growth and inflation appears to have reached a more feasible balancing point. Across equity markets, the narrowing of the gulf between growth and value is likely to continue as a greater number of industries start to benefit from higher earnings and improving monetary and fiscal policies. 2025 likely will not be a year of robust economic (GDP growth: U.S. growth is forecast to grow at a modest 1.5%-2.5%, with the Eurozone and Chinese growth lagging. In this environment, investors could benefit from an increased allocation towards value names whilst avoiding an overexposure to growth. Nonetheless, we continue to buy high-quality, profitable, blue-chip equities with strong balance sheets and positive free-cashflow yields. Fixed-income securities also offer attractive yields at these levels, without subjecting portfolios to much downside risk. Emerging market equities and small companies are also available at attractive valuations relative to US Blue Chips. The overall outlook for equities remains cautiously optimistic, supported by a more dovish US Federal Reserve and a resilient US economy, though global risks and sector-specific performance will be closely watched.
Asset class forecasts*
Developed Markets
North America
During the last week, U.S. financial markets experienced a mix of optimism and caution. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record highs, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a slight decline due to some tech stocks cooling off. Investors were encouraged by strong corporate earnings and early optimism around artificial intelligence. However, concerns over high valuations, persistent inflation, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown tempered enthusiasm. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% for the month, keeping the annual rate at 2.7%, indicating that inflationary pressures remain persistent. Bond yields edged higher, especially on longer-term maturities, as investors demanded more return for inflation risk. Meanwhile, gold prices surged to record highs on safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar, and oil prices rose modestly amid supply concerns. Labor data was disappointing, with ADP reporting a 32,000 job loss, and the official jobs report was delayed due to the shutdown. Overall, markets balanced optimism for eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts with caution over economic uncertainty and fiscal risks.
Europe & UK
During the last week, European and UK markets had a mixed week. In the UK, the FTSE 100 hit a record high of 9,548.87 on October 8, helped by gains in banks, miners, and industrial companies. However, worries about high inflation and a slowing job market kept investors cautious. Inflation stayed at 3.8% for the year, wages grew slowly at 4.7%, and unemployment rose to 4.8%, while grocery prices went up 5.2%, putting pressure on consumers. Consumer confidence weakened slightly, reflecting concerns over higher living costs and economic uncertainty. In the Eurozone, the ECB kept interest rates at 2%, noting that inflation risks were balanced. Inflation rose slightly to 2.2% in September, with services inflation at 3.2%, leading to talks of possible rate cuts in the future. Economic growth remained modest, with Germany and France showing slower-than-expected industrial activity. Overall, markets were influenced by economic data, inflation concerns, and central bank decisions, with some sectors showing resilience but overall caution remaining.
Japan
During the last week, Japan’s financial markets had a mixed but generally positive week. The Nikkei 225 rose about 4.8% to a record high, helped by optimism around new political leadership and expectations of expansionary government policies. The yen weakened to an eight-month low against the dollar as investors expected the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to delay rate hikes due to global uncertainties. Economic data was mixed: industrial production rose 1.4%, showing a rebound, but retail sales fell 1.1%, suggesting weaker consumer spending. Inflation expectations remained high, with nearly 90% of households expecting prices to rise in the next year. The BOJ faces a tricky situation—some board members want higher rates because of persistent inflation, while others caution that global and domestic risks could delay tightening. Overall, markets balanced hope from political and policy support with caution about slower growth and uncertainty.
Emerging Markets
China
During the last week, China’s financial markets were cautious amid trade tensions and mixed economic data. The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 moved little early in the week after renewed U.S. trade actions raised concerns, but they rebounded midweek on optimism in sectors like AI and semiconductors. Economic indicators were mixed: new bank loans jumped in September, but manufacturing output contracted, and services activity slowed, showing weak domestic demand. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept interest rates steady and promised continued policy support, while the yuan traded in a narrow range under pressure from capital flows. Government bond yields rose slightly, and the central bank continued modest gold purchases to diversify reserves. Overall, markets balanced hopes for stimulus and policy support against slowing growth, regulatory risks, and global uncertainties.
India
During the last week, India’s financial markets saw mixed movements amid global trade concerns and domestic developments. The rupee stayed weak near ₹88.80 per U.S. dollar but was stabilized by interventions from the RBI and state-run banks. Equity markets fluctuated: the Nifty 50 crossed 25,250 and the Sensex gained around 200 points at one stage, driven by strong IT stock earnings, though financial stocks saw some profit-taking. Inflation fell to an eight-year low of 1.54% in September, mainly due to easing food prices, raising the possibility of another RBI rate cut in December. In policy news, the RBI allowed Indian banks to offer rupee-denominated loans to residents of Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, supporting cross-border trade. Overall, markets showed cautious optimism, balancing external risks with signs of domestic economic resilience.
MENA
During the last week, stock markets in the MENA region showed mixed results. In the UAE, Dubai’s index fell 0.5%, mainly due to drops in Emaar Properties (down 1.1%) and Emirates NBD (down 0.8%), while Abu Dhabi’s index slipped 0.2%. In Saudi Arabia, the TASI index rose 0.5%, helped by gains in Al Rajhi Bank (0.6%) and Saudi Aramco (0.7%). Qatar’s index went up slightly by 0.2%, supported by a 0.7% rise in Qatar National Bank. Overall, the markets were influenced by both regional and global economic developments.
Commodities and Forex
Commodities
During the last week, global commodity markets showed mixed performance. Oil prices rose slightly, with Brent crude at $63.54 per barrel and WTI at $59.71, supported by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a limited OPEC+ production increase. Gold surged above $4,000 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid economic and political uncertainties, a weaker U.S. dollar, and strong interest from central banks and investors. Copper rallied to $11,000 per metric ton, boosted by a weaker dollar and supply disruptions at key mines, although demand from China remains a key factor for sustainability. Agricultural commodities were mixed, with corn prices declining slightly, and soybean and wheat falling due to weaker Russian and European prices and adverse weather, while the World Bank projects a gradual decline in agricultural prices through 2026. Overall, commodities reflected a combination of supply dynamics, global economic data, and geopolitical risks.
Currencies
During the last week, global currency markets experienced notable fluctuations driven by economic data, central bank actions, and geopolitical events. The U.S. dollar weakened due to concerns over a potential government shutdown, falling 0.6% against the Japanese yen to 148.61 and 0.2% on the dollar index to 97.9. The euro rose to $1.1731, and the British pound recovered to $1.3436. The Japanese yen moved between 147.73 and 149.75 per dollar as investors watched the Bank of Japan’s discussions about a possible rate hike. The Indian rupee remained under pressure, hitting a record low of ₹88.76 per dollar due to foreign investor outflows, strong corporate dollar demand, and concerns over U.S. tariffs and stricter visa rules. Overall, currency movements reflected a mix of domestic economic trends, central bank decisions, and global political developments.
Commodities
| Name | 10/10/25 | 30/09/25 | 30/06/25 | 31/12/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil ($/barrel) | $58.90 | $62.37 | $65.11 | $71.72 |
| Brent Oil ($/barrel) | $62.73 | $67.02 | $67.61 | $74.64 |
| Gold ($/oz) | $4017.79 | $3858.96 | $3303.14 | $2624.50 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) | $3.11 | $3.30 | $3.46 | $3.63 |
Currency
| Name | 10/10/25 | 30/09/25 | 30/06/25 | 31/12/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro (€/$) | 1.1619 | 1.1734 | 1.1787 | 1.0354 |
| Pound (£/$) | 1.3360 | 1.3446 | 1.3732 | 1.2516 |
| Japanese Yen (Â¥/$) | 151.19 | 147.90 | 144.03 | 157.20 |
| Swiss Franc (CHF/€) | 0.9289 | 0.9345 | 0.9348 | 0.9401 |
| Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY/$) | 7.1353 | 7.1224 | 7.1638 | 7.2993 |
Index Valuations
Index Return
| Name | 1 Week (%) | Month-to-Date (%) | Quarter-to-Date (%) | Year-to-Date (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -2.41% | -1.99% | -1.99% | 12.53% |
| NASDAQ Composite | -2.53% | -2.00% | -2.00% | 15.60% |
| DJ Industrial Average | -2.70% | -1.93% | -1.93% | 8.34% |
| S&P 400 | -3.85% | -3.09% | -3.09% | 2.48% |
| Russell 2000 | -3.28% | -1.70% | -1.70% | 8.51% |
| S&P 500 Equal Weight | -3.22% | -2.45% | -2.45% | 7.19% |
| STOXX Europe 50 (€) | -2.13% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 16.23% |
| STOXX Europe 600 (€) | -1.08% | 1.12% | 1.12% | 14.55% |
| MSCI EAFE Small Cap | -1.96% | -1.34% | -1.34% | 27.17% |
| FTSE 100 (£) | -0.65% | 0.91% | 0.91% | 18.74% |
| FTSE MIB (€) | -2.80% | -1.59% | -1.59% | 27.75% |
| CAC 40 (€) | -2.00% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 10.74% |
| DAX (€) | -0.56% | 1.51% | 1.51% | 21.76% |
| SWISS MKT (CHF) | -0.21% | 3.07% | 3.07% | 11.04% |
| TOPIX (Â¥) | 2.19% | 1.91% | 1.91% | 14.82% |
| Nifty 50 | 1.57% | 2.74% | 2.74% | 6.94% |
| Hang Seng (HKD) | -3.13% | -2.10% | -2.08% | 31.06% |
| MSCI World | -2.27% | -1.56% | -1.56% | 16.00% |
| MSCI China Free | -3.23% | -2.23% | -2.23% | 35.03% |
| MSCI EAFE | -1.85% | -0.29% | -0.29% | 25.41% |
| MSCI EM | -0.58% | 1.48% | 1.48% | 30.05% |
| MSCI Brazil (BRL) | -2.46% | -4.36% | -4.36% | 17.73% |
| MSCI India (INR) | 1.43% | 2.59% | 2.59% | 4.19% |
Fixed Income
| Name | 1 Week (%) | Month-to-Date (%) | Quarter-to-Date (%) | Year-to-Date (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg US Aggregate | 0.93% | 0.93% | 1.86% | 5.96% |
| Bloomberg Euro Aggregate | 0.58% | 0.58% | 0.10% | 14.42% |
| Bloomberg US High Yield | 0.32% | 0.32% | 2.03% | 6.69% |
| Bloomberg Euro High Yield (€) | -0.07% | -0.07% | 1.34% | 3.67% |
Blend Fund Performance Year To Date
Direct Fund
| 13/10/25 | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aditum Global Discovery | -1.34% | 1.57% | 17.99% | 14.69% | 10.17% | 32.17% |
| Aditum India Explorer Fund | 1.33% | 0.59% | 8.94% | 14.44% | - | - |
| Ashoka WhiteOak India Opportunities | 0.62% | -0.61% | 8.81% | -3.59% | -7.38% | - |
| BlackRock GF World Healthscience USD | -1.58% | 2.36% | 8.64% | 5.35% | -4.65% | 10.73% |
| Emirates Global Sukuk | 0.03% | 0.49% | 5.10% | 5.82% | 4.72% | 13.68% |
| Emirates MENA Fixed Income | -0.03% | 1.04% | 8.05% | 8.04% | 5.52% | 20.36% |
| Emirates MENA Top Companies | 0.68% | 5.32% | 11.40% | 4.70% | 8.77% | 12.25% |
| Franklin Gold and Precious Metals USD | 0.31% | 13.77% | 63.27% | 147.13% | 113.86% | 225.25% |
| Harris Associates Global Equity | -2.68% | -0.04% | 16.27% | 12.65% | 7.68% | 25.06% |
| Loomis Sayles Global Growth Equity | -1.79% | -0.78% | 31.03% | 18.72% | 22.39% | 63.30% |
| Loomis Sayles Multisector Income | -0.29% | -0.06% | 6.67% | 6.61% | 5.70% | 20.11% |
| PineBridge Japan Small Cap Equity | -2.49% | -4.26% | 17.99% | 20.04% | 13.09% | 18.65% |
| UBAM 30 Global Leaders Equity | -2.17% | -1.96% | 17.00% | 6.78% | 3.82% | 23.45% |
| iShares US Corporate bond Index | 0.20% | 0.37% | 7.21% | 7.17% | 5.52% | 18.97% |
| iShares Developed World Index | -2.28% | 0.46% | 24.80% | 15.33% | 15.85% | 51.20% |
Nexus Blend Funds
| 13/10/25 | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar High Risk Blend | -0.91% | 1.20% | 21.55% | 15.65% | 13.54% | 43.49% |
| US Dollar Medium-High Risk Blend | -0.52% | 1.32% | 20.54% | 15.04% | 13.44% | 42.63% |
| US Dollar Medium Risk Blend | -0.25% | 1.42% | 18.51% | 14.07% | 12.52% | 39.59% |
| US Dollar Medium-Low Risk Blend | 0.09% | 1.54% | 14.71% | 13.13% | 10.66% | 33.34% |
| US Dollar Low Risk Blend | 0.28% | 1.68% | 12.15% | 11.46% | 9.27% | 26.38% |
Zurich Mirror Funds
| 13/10/25 | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date(%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canaccord Genuity Balanced | -0.95% | 0.46% | 13.48% | 8.37% | 6.01% | 24.94% |
| Canaccord Genuity Growth | -1.08% | 0.71% | 17.06% | 9.41% | 7.11% | 28.44% |
| Canaccord Genuity Opportunity | -1.05% | 0.74% | 17.57% | 11.56% | 10.61% | 33.02% |
| Emirates Emerging Market Debt | 0.19% | -0.10% | 9.98% | 5.62% | 4.56% | 26.04% |
| Emirates Islamic Balanced Managed | 1.00% | 3.10% | 16.79% | 10.55% | 9.37% | 24.92% |
| Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity | -2.13% | -0.83% | 28.65% | 9.10% | 19.35% | 60.75% |
* Data is lagged by 1 day.
**Â Â Data is lagged by 2 days.