Tuesday 9 December 2025
Weekly Market Update
Overview
Last week, global markets showed a mix of optimism and caution. In the U.S., stocks rose, led by technology shares, even as manufacturing weakened and private payrolls slowed, while bond yields increased. Europe saw modest gains, supported by eurozone growth and low unemployment, with Germany’s factory orders stronger than expected and the UK housing market remaining resilient. Japan’s markets were mixed as hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan pushed bond yields and the yen higher, while household spending fell sharply. In emerging markets, China’s stocks rose on tech and AI optimism despite ongoing weakness in manufacturing and real estate, while Indian markets were cautiously positive after the RBI cut rates, with IT and banking performing well but other sectors lagging and the rupee recovering slightly. In the MENA region, economic growth remained strong, especially in the UAE, though equity markets dipped and investors remained cautious amid global macro and commodity trends. Commodities were mixed: oil stayed near two-week highs, gold eased on higher U.S. yields, and copper rose sharply. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly on rate-cut expectations, while the euro and yen gained modestly amid regional economic data and central-bank signals. Overall, markets balanced optimism over economic growth and potential easing policies with caution around global uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and commodity supply concerns.
The Week Ahead
Mon: AUD, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Tue: USD, JOLTS Job Openings (Oct)
Wed: USD, Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu: USD, Initial Jobless Claims
Fri: GBP, GDP (MoM) (Oct)
Outlook: The tug-of-war between global economic growth and inflation appears to have reached a more feasible balancing point. Across equity markets, the narrowing of the gulf between growth and value is likely to continue as a greater number of industries start to benefit from higher earnings and improving monetary and fiscal policies. 2025 likely will not be a year of robust economic (GDP growth: U.S. growth is forecast to grow at a modest 1.5%-2.5%, with the Eurozone and Chinese growth lagging. In this environment, investors could benefit from an increased allocation towards value names whilst avoiding an overexposure to growth. Nonetheless, we continue to buy high-quality, profitable, blue-chip equities with strong balance sheets and positive free-cashflow yields. Fixed-income securities also offer attractive yields at these levels, without subjecting portfolios to much downside risk. Emerging market equities and small companies are also available at attractive valuations relative to US Blue Chips. The overall outlook for equities remains cautiously optimistic, supported by a more dovish US Federal Reserve and a resilient US economy, though global risks and sector-specific performance will be closely watched.
Asset class forecasts*
Developed Markets
North America
Last week, U.S. markets continued their positive momentum as major stock indexes moved higher, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates soon. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the gains, while the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 also advanced. Economic data painted a mixed picture: manufacturing activity weakened for the ninth straight month, but the services sector grew at its fastest pace since February. The job market showed signs of cooling, with private payrolls seeing their biggest drop since early 2023 and companies announcing a rise in job cuts, although unemployment claims surprisingly fell to their lowest level since 2022. Inflation remained steady in September at 2.8% year over year, and consumer sentiment improved slightly as people felt a bit more positive about their finances and expected lower inflation ahead. In the bond market, Treasury prices declined as long-term yields rose, while municipal bonds held up better and high-yield bonds gained on improving economic conditions and stronger trading activity.
Europe & UK
Last week in Europe, markets ended slightly higher as hopes for interest rate cuts in the U.S. and UK supported sentiment, although major indexes delivered mixed results. The STOXX 600 gained 0.41%, with Germany’s DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB inching higher, while France slipped and the UK’s FTSE 100 declined. Economic data showed that eurozone inflation picked up slightly to 2.2% in November, still close to the ECB’s target, while core inflation stayed at 2.4%. Growth was also revised upward, with eurozone GDP rising 0.3% in the third quarter thanks to stronger investment and solid contributions from France and Spain. The labor market remained tight with unemployment holding at 6.4%, and retail sales improved year over year. In Germany, factory orders rose more than expected for a second month, helped by big-ticket transportation and metal industry orders. Meanwhile, the UK housing market showed resilience despite tax concerns, with house prices rising again in November and mortgage demand staying healthy.
Japan
Last week in Japan, stock markets delivered mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 rising modestly while the broader TOPIX slipped. Markets came under pressure as global bond yields climbed and a hawkish speech from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda boosted expectations of a possible rate hike in December. This pushed Japan’s 10-year government bond yield to its highest level since 2007 and strengthened the yen. Governor Ueda noted that Japan’s economy is still recovering moderately and that prices for goods and services continue to rise. He also signalled that if the current economic outlook plays out as expected, the BoJ would continue raising interest rates, with the chances of this scenario increasing due to fewer uncertainties abroad. Investors took his comments as a clear sign of potential tightening at the upcoming December 18–19 meeting. Economic data also showed weakness, with household spending falling sharply in October—the biggest drop since early 2024—mainly due to reduced spending on food, entertainment, and cars amid continued cost pressures.
Emerging Markets
China
Last week in China, mainland stock markets moved higher as excitement around domestic technology and AI companies outweighed concerns about slowing economic data. The CSI 300 gained over 1%, and the Shanghai Composite also inched up, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index posted a solid gain. Economic indicators, however, showed continued weakness: the official manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.2 but remained in contraction territory for an eighth straight month—a record stretch. Nonmanufacturing activity, which includes construction and services, slipped into contraction for the first time in nearly three years, mainly due to ongoing problems in the real estate sector. These results reinforced signs that China’s economy is losing momentum in the fourth quarter, with the prolonged property crisis continuing to pressure household confidence and increase deflation risks. Despite the slowdown, many analysts still expect China to meet its full-year growth target of around 5%, even without additional government stimulus.
India
Last week in India, equity markets ended on a cautiously positive note after the Reserve Bank of India cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, boosting optimism in rate-sensitive sectors. Inflation forecasts for FY26 were sharply revised lower to 2%, while GDP growth projections were raised to 7.3%. Despite these positives, broader market indices slipped slightly: the Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 150, and Nifty Small Cap 250 fell 0.11%, 0.95%, and 1.64%, respectively. The Indian rupee recovered modestly to around ₹89.9 per U.S. dollar after hitting a record low earlier in the week, aided by RBI policy support and profit booking in dollar positions. Foreign investors continued net selling, while domestic institutions absorbed the outflows with substantial net inflows. The market also prepared for a wave of mega IPOs worth nearly ₹30,000 crore in December. Sector performance was mixed: IT stocks led gains on global tech optimism, while metals and autos showed resilience. Banking and financials initially rallied after the RBI rate cut but ended slightly lower, and defence stocks rose amid government procurement optimism. In contrast, media, consumer durables, FMCG, and energy lagged, with energy facing short-term uncertainty after the India–Russia Annual Summit.
MENA
Last week, MENA markets showed a mix of optimism and caution as the region continued to navigate a transitional economic phase. The IMF expects GCC growth to accelerate to around 3.3% in 2025 as oil production cuts ease and non-oil activity strengthens, with the UAE singled out for a projected 4.8% growth supported by balanced oil and non-oil sectors. In November, the UAE’s non-oil private sector rebounded strongly, with output, new orders, and employment reaching an 18-month high, highlighting robust domestic demand and ongoing economic diversification. Despite this, regional equity markets were subdued, with the pan-Arab index declining about 1.7% over the week, mainly due to weakness in the Saudi market. Fixed-income markets, in contrast, generally posted gains as investors reacted to global bond yields and expectations of U.S. policy easing. Overall, the region shows resilience from strong economic fundamentals, but markets remain sensitive to global macro trends, commodity prices, and interest-rate developments.
Commodities and Forex
Commodities
Last week, commodities markets showed mixed signals as investors weighed geopolitical risks, uneven demand, and expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut. Oil prices held near two week highs, supported by possible rate cuts and supply uncertainty—particularly after recent disruptions in Russia’s oil infrastructure—though concerns over excess supply limited further gains. Precious metals experienced volatility, with gold easing from recent highs as rising U.S. Treasury yields reduced its appeal, even as rate cut expectations provided some longer-term support. Industrial metals, especially copper, continued to gain strongly in 2025, rebounding sharply from earlier lows. Overall, markets remain sensitive to global economic outlooks, supply disruptions, and policy developments, reflecting a balance between optimism over potential monetary easing and caution amid growth concerns and geopolitical uncertainty.
Currencies
Last week, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut pressured the U.S. dollar, causing it to decline modestly against several major currencies, with the dollar index falling about 0.5%. The euro remained near $1.164 and edged slightly higher, supported by eurozone inflation data that suggested the European Central Bank may hold off on further easing. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar as investors priced in a potential December rate hike from the Bank of Japan. As of today, the dollar is largely steady but continues to face headwinds from uncertainty over the Fed’s policy direction, while both the euro and yen have gained modestly amid local economic data and central-bank expectations. Overall, currency markets remain volatile, balancing hopes of U.S. rate cuts against regional economic signals and policy developments.
Commodities
| Name | 05/12/25 | 30/11/25 | 30/09/25 | 31/12/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil ($/barrel) | $60.08 | $58.55 | $62.37 | $71.72 |
| Brent Oil ($/barrel) | $63.75 | $63.20 | $67.02 | $74.64 |
| Gold ($/oz) | $4197.78 | $4239.43 | $3858.96 | $2624.50 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) | $5.29 | $4.85 | $3.30 | $3.63 |
Currency
| Name | 05/12/25 | 30/11/25 | 30/09/25 | 31/12/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro (€/$) | 1.1642 | 1.1598 | 1.1734 | 1.0354 |
| Pound (ÂŁ/$) | 1.3328 | 1.3235 | 1.3446 | 1.2516 |
| Japanese Yen (ÂĄ/$) | 155.33 | 156.18 | 147.90 | 157.20 |
| Swiss Franc (CHF/€) | 0.9368 | 0.9322 | 0.9345 | 0.9401 |
| Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY/$) | 7.0711 | 7.0745 | 7.1224 | 7.2993 |
Index Valuations
Index Return
| Name | 1 Week (%) | Month-to-Date (%) | Quarter-to-Date (%) | Year-to-Date (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 0.35% | 0.35% | 2.95% | 18.20% |
| NASDAQ Composite | 0.93% | 0.93% | 4.16% | 22.87% |
| DJ Industrial Average | 0.62% | 0.62% | 3.72% | 14.58% |
| S&P 400 | 0.39% | 0.39% | 1.96% | 7.82% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.88% | 0.88% | 3.69% | 14.45% |
| S&P 500 Equal Weight | 0.27% | 0.27% | 1.21% | 11.21% |
| STOXX Europe 50 (€) | 1.02% | 1.02% | 3.89% | 20.66% |
| STOXX Europe 600 (€) | 0.43% | 0.43% | 4.04% | 17.86% |
| MSCI EAFE Small Cap | -0.12% | -0.12% | 0.29% | 29.39% |
| FTSE 100 (ÂŁ) | -0.53% | -0.53% | 3.94% | 22.31% |
| FTSE MIB (€) | 0.17% | 0.17% | 2.82% | 33.47% |
| CAC 40 (€) | 0.01% | 0.01% | 3.07% | 13.68% |
| DAX (€) | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.62% | 20.69% |
| SWISS MKT (CHF) | 0.80% | 0.80% | 6.83% | 15.09% |
| TOPIX (ÂĄ) | -0.47% | -0.47% | 7.18% | 20.74% |
| Nifty 50 | -0.06% | -0.06% | 6.60% | 10.75% |
| Hang Seng (HKD) | 0.87% | 0.87% | -2.42% | 30.04% |
| MSCI World | 0.50% | 0.50% | 2.85% | 21.22% |
| MSCI China Free | 1.13% | 1.13% | -5.68% | 30.27% |
| MSCI EAFE | 0.77% | 0.77% | 2.63% | 29.16% |
| MSCI EM | 1.43% | 1.43% | 3.16% | 32.23% |
| MSCI Brazil (BRL) | -1.42% | -1.42% | 7.21% | 31.97% |
| MSCI India (INR) | -0.11% | -0.11% | 5.96% | 7.62% |
Fixed Income
| Name | 1 Week (%) | Month-to-Date (%) | Quarter-to-Date (%) | Year-to-Date (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg US Aggregate | -0.48% | -0.48% | 0.76% | 6.94% |
| Bloomberg Global Aggregate | -0.24% | -0.24% | -0.27% | 7.62% |
| Bloomberg Euro Aggregate | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.60% | 13.92% |
| Bloomberg US High Yield | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.86% | 8.14% |
| Bloomberg Euro High Yield (€) | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.39% | 4.57% |
Blend Fund Performance Year To Date
| (05/12/25) | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aditum Global Discovery | 0.33% | 3.94% | 12.70% | 19.81% | 14.81% | 34.81% |
| Aditum India Explorer Fund | -1.00% | 0.24% | -0.51% | 14.98% | - | - |
| Ashoka WhiteOak India Opportunities | -2.89% | -2.30% | -4.30% | -5.18% | -8.41% | - |
| BlackRock GF World Healthscience USD | -2.61% | 4.99% | 11.18% | 10.81% | 5.39% | 17.62% |
| Emirates Global Sukuk | -0.04% | 0.26% | 4.07% | 6.60% | 5.61% | 11.04% |
| Emirates MENA Fixed Income | -0.03% | 0.27% | 7.06% | 9.18% | 7.04% | 13.96% |
| Emirates MENA Top Companies | 1.26% | -2.78% | 1.06% | -0.22% | -0.05% | 5.49% |
| Franklin Gold and Precious Metals USD | -2.74% | 13.32% | 52.37% | 157.10% | 138.71% | 215.19% |
| Harris Associates Global Equity | 1.10% | 3.56% | 5.27% | 14.55% | 10.84% | 20.91% |
| Loomis Sayles Global Growth Equity | 1.70% | -0.95% | 9.49% | 17.89% | 13.59% | 49.93% |
| Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity | 1.01% | 1.19% | 10.46% | 12.06% | 8.49% | 55.33% |
| Loomis Sayles Multisector Income | -0.06% | 0.70% | 4.45% | 7.35% | 5.91% | 15.79% |
| PineBridge Japan Small Cap Equity | -0.20% | 2.62% | 4.65% | 20.02% | 17.65% | 20.56% |
| UBAM 30 Global Leaders Equity | 0.50% | 0.83% | 4.44% | 9.30% | 4.79% | 18.35% |
| iShares US Corporate bond Index | -0.37% | 0.31% | 5.22% | 7.35% | 5.30% | 13.04% |
| iShares Developed World Index | 0.49% | 2.28% | 13.38% | 20.45% | 16.47% | 50.48% |
Direct Fund
Nexus Blend Funds
| (05/12/25) | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar High Risk Blend | 0.77% | 2.18% | 11.02% | 19.13% | 15.07% | 39.65% |
| US Dollar Medium-High Risk Blend | 0.49% | 2.08% | 11.67% | 18.51% | 14.59% | 39.63% |
| US Dollar Medium Risk Blend | 0.33% | 1.91% | 10.78% | 16.92% | 13.18% | 36.05% |
| US Dollar Medium-Low Risk Blend | 0.05% | 1.71% | 9.21% | 15.46% | 11.76% | 29.26% |
| US Dollar Low Risk Blend | -0.05% | 1.45% | 8.24% | 13.37% | 10.28% | 22.28% |
Zurich Mirror Funds
| (05/12/25) | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date(%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canaccord Genuity Balanced | 0.31% | 1.31% | 6.87% | 10.06% | 6.81% | 22.93% |
| Canaccord Genuity Growth | 0.39% | 1.47% | 8.58% | 11.40% | 7.60% | 26.79% |
| Canaccord Genuity Opportunity | 0.80% | 2.15% | 10.12% | 14.43% | 11.35% | 32.57% |
| Emirates Emerging Market Debt | -0.04% | -0.57% | 6.39% | 6.23% | 4.09% | 18.47% |
| Emirates Islamic Global Balanced | 0.35% | 0.52% | 9.92% | 11.82% | 10.50% | 22.22% |
* Data is lagged by 1 day.
**Â Â Data is lagged by 2 days.