Tuesday 23 December 2025

Weekly Market Update

Overview

Last week, global markets displayed a mix of cautious optimism amid economic uncertainty and varied central bank actions. In developed markets, U.S. stocks finished mixed, with early-week weakness due to tech and AI concerns offset by a late-week rebound supported by cooler-than-expected inflation and strong corporate earnings, while Treasuries outperformed other fixed income segments. European markets rose broadly, aided by steady growth and central bank guidance, as the ECB held rates and the BoE cut its policy rate, while Sweden and Norway kept rates unchanged. Japan saw declines in equity markets despite a widely expected BoJ rate hike, with the yen weakening and exports supporting economic activity. Among emerging markets, Chinese equities were mixed amid weak domestic demand and a focus on manufacturing-led growth, while Indian markets rebounded, supported by domestic institutional flows, sectoral gains in metals, IT, and consumer durables, and a slightly stronger rupee. MENA equities were also mixed but broadly supported by rising oil prices and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. In commodities, metals faced supply pressures, and precious metals rose on safe-haven demand, while currency markets saw the U.S. dollar weaken, the yen strengthen, and gains for the euro, pound, and select emerging market currencies. Overall, markets reflected cautious optimism, balancing easing inflation and supportive policy signals against slowing growth and global uncertainties.

The Week Ahead
Mon: UK, Gross Domestic Product (Year on Year) (Q3)
Tue: U.S., Gross Domestic Product (Quarter on Quarter) (Q3)
Wed: U.S., Crude Oil Inventories
Thu: Japan, Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Dec)
Fri: U.S., Oil Rig Count by Baker Hughes

Outlook: The tug-of-war between global economic growth and inflation appears to have reached a more feasible balancing point. Across equity markets, the narrowing of the gulf between growth and value is likely to continue as a greater number of industries start to benefit from higher earnings and improving monetary and fiscal policies. 2025 likely will not be a year of robust economic (GDP growth: U.S. growth is forecast to grow at a modest 1.5%-2.5%, with the Eurozone and Chinese growth lagging. In this environment, investors could benefit from an increased allocation towards value names whilst avoiding an overexposure to growth. Nonetheless, we continue to buy high-quality, profitable, blue-chip equities with strong balance sheets and positive free-cashflow yields. Fixed-income securities also offer attractive yields at these levels, without subjecting portfolios to much downside risk. Emerging market equities and small companies are also available at attractive valuations relative to US Blue Chips. The overall outlook for equities remains cautiously optimistic, supported by a more dovish US Federal Reserve and a resilient US economy, though global risks and sector-specific performance will be closely watched.

Asset class forecasts*

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*Source: Goldman Sachs (GS) Global Investment Research and GSAM as of January 2021.

Developed Markets

North America
Last week, U.S. stock markets finished mixed, reflecting a tug-of-war between early-week weakness and late-week optimism. Concerns over tech valuations, AI-related spending, and mixed jobs data initially pressured equities, while a cooler-than-expected inflation report and strong earnings from Micron Technology helped lift markets later in the week. Small-cap stocks and the Dow underperformed, while the Nasdaq posted modest gains, highlighting continued investor focus on growth-oriented sectors. Economic data sent mixed signals: job growth rebounded in November, but the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high, suggesting the labour market may be softening. Inflation slowed more than expected, with core prices rising at the slowest pace since early 2021, which boosted investor confidence. Meanwhile, business activity growth moderated to a six-month low, indicating that the recent economic momentum is losing strength, and firms are exercising caution in hiring and investment decisions. In fixed income markets, U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns as yields fell across most maturities, outperforming municipal and high-yield bonds, while trading activity remained relatively quiet, with investors largely reacting to key economic data and issuer-specific news rather than broad market trends. Overall, the week underscored cautious optimism as investors weighed signs of slowing growth against easing inflation pressures..

Europe & UK
Last week, European stock markets rose broadly, supported by signs of steady economic growth and expectations of looser monetary policy. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index gained 1.60% in local currency terms, while major national indexes also advanced: Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 2.86%, the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 2.57%, France’s CAC 40 added 1.03%, and Germany’s DAX increased 0.42%. In central bank developments, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% for the fourth consecutive meeting, citing a solid policy stance while remaining data-dependent, and raised its GDP growth estimates for 2025–2028. The Bank of England (BoE) cut its key policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75%, following slower-than-expected inflation and a weakening labor market, with unemployment rising to 5.1% and wage growth slowing. Meanwhile, Sweden’s Riksbank held its rate at 1.75%, signaling little likelihood of near-term changes, and Norway’s Norges Bank kept borrowing costs at 4.0%, maintaining a restrictive stance to control inflation. Overall, markets reacted positively to easing inflation pressures and central bank guidance, while economic growth remained steady across the region.

Japan
Last week, Japan’s stock markets declined, with the Nikkei 225 falling 2.61% and the broader TOPIX down 1.17%, as technology stocks mirrored U.S. losses amid concerns over high valuations and heavy AI-related spending. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate hike, raising its benchmark interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, citing a more favourable economic outlook. Investors closely watched BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments, who emphasized that future rate adjustments would depend on economic conditions, inflation, and wage growth, offering limited guidance on the timing of the next hike. Following the meeting, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.01% and the yen weakened to around JPY 157.3 against the U.S. dollar. Supporting the central bank’s cautious approach, Japan’s core CPI held steady at 3.0% year over year in November, while exports grew 6.1%, exceeding expectations, boosted by U.S. demand and a weaker yen. Overall, markets were influenced by the BoJ’s policy actions, inflation data, and global tech sector pressures.

Emerging Markets


China

Last week, Mainland Chinese stock markets ended on a mixed note, reflecting concerns over slow economic growth. The CSI 300 Index fell 0.28%, the Shanghai Composite inched up 0.03%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.10%. Key economic data highlighted ongoing weakness in domestic demand: retail sales rose just 1.3% year over year in November, the slowest pace since the pandemic, fixed asset investment fell 2.6% through November, and industrial output grew 4.8%, below expectations. The data underscored the continued reliance on exports to drive growth, as domestic consumption remains subdued. In policy developments, China’s leaders indicated that they would avoid large-scale stimulus next year, instead using targeted interest rate and reserve requirement adjustments to ensure liquidity and maintain necessary budgetary support. Analysts see this as a sign that Beijing will continue its manufacturing-led growth strategy while gradually encouraging consumer demand. Overall, markets reflected cautious sentiment amid persistent economic headwinds and a steady policy approach.


India

Last week, Indian markets rebounded after two weeks of decline, driven by mixed global cues and lower-than-expected U.S. consumer price inflation. The Nifty 50 rose 0.26%, the Nifty Midcap 150 gained 1.16%, and the Nifty Small cap 250 added 0.90%, supported by broad-based buying from DIIs and modest FII purchases of around ₹1,200–1,500 crore. The rupee strengthened slightly to about ₹89.65/USD, while the 10-year G-Sec yield eased to roughly 6.60%, reflecting expectations of continued accommodative policy. Sector performance was mixed, with Metals (+2.48%), Consumer Durables (+1.97%), IT (+1.56%), PSU Banks (+1.48%), Oil & Gas (+1.38%), Realty (+1.34%), Tourism (+1.30%), and Infrastructure (+1.24%) posting gains, while Private Banks (-0.91%), Financial Services (-0.67%), Defense (-0.51%), Pharma (-0.14%), Auto (-0.01%), and Healthcare (-0.03%) were flat or declined. Defensive sectors like FMCG (+0.30%) and Energy (+0.13%) saw mild upticks. Overall, the week reflected cautious optimism, with domestic flows supporting broad market strength amid global uncertainties.

MENA
Last week, MENA markets showed mixed performance amid global uncertainty over interest rate paths and oil price movements. Most major Gulf bourses edged higher, supported by rising oil prices and growing expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, which boosted sentiment across Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index and other Gulf markets rallied on gains in energy and banking stocks, while UAE markets were mixed, with Dubai’s index rising for a fourth consecutive week on oil strength and optimism over a more accommodative Fed outlook, and Abu Dhabi seeing modest declines due to profit-taking in select large-cap names. Overall, MENA equities reflected cautious optimism, underpinned by commodity price support and anticipated global rate easing, even as markets continue to navigate macroeconomic uncertainty and external risks.

Commodities and Forex

Commodities
Last week, commodities markets showed mixed trends, with oil and metals in focus amid global uncertainty. Oil prices were mostly steady, as worries about supply disruptions from places like Venezuela balanced concerns about oversupply, keeping Brent and WTI crude relatively unchanged. China’s crude stockpiling also influenced prices, as its actions helped set price levels in the market. In metals, base metals saw some supply pressures, while gold and silver rose on strong safe-haven demand and expectations of future interest rate cuts. Overall, commodities were shaped by a combination of supply concerns, global demand, and investor caution amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Currencies
Last week in currencies markets, major currencies were shaped by central bank actions, dollar weakness, and safe‑haven flows as investors digested policy shifts and economic data. The U.S. dollar continued to weaken against peers, with the dollar index sliding and posting one of its largest annual declines in years amid expectations of future rate cuts and global growth dynamics. Against this backdrop, the Japanese yen strengthened, lifted by hints of possible intervention from Japanese authorities to curb sharp declines and thin holiday trading conditions. The European euro and British pound both gained against the dollar, with the pound supported by recent Bank of England rate decisions. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee eased slightly against the dollar, pressured by importer dollar demand and hedging activity, even as the broader dollar trend weakened. Across emerging markets, currencies such as the South African rand strengthened helped by rising precious metals prices, underscoring how commodity moves and monetary expectations are influencing FX markets globally.

Commodities

Name19/12/2530/11/2530/09/2531/12/24
WTI Oil ($/barrel)$56.66$58.55$62.37$71.72
Brent Oil ($/barrel)$60.47$63.20$67.02$74.64
Gold ($/oz)$4338.88$4239.43$3858.96$2624.50
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu)$3.98$4.85$3.30$3.63

Currency

Name19/12/2530/11/2530/09/2531/12/24
Euro (€/$)1.17101.15981.17341.0354
Pound (£/$)1.33791.32351.34461.2516
Japanese Yen (Â¥/$)157.75156.18147.90157.20
Swiss Franc (CHF/€)0.93160.93220.93450.9401
Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY/$)7.04107.07457.12247.2993

Index Valuations

Index Return

Name1 Week (%)Month-to-Date (%)Quarter-to-Date (%)Year-to-Date (%)
S&P 5000.13%-0.13%2.46%17.64%
NASDAQ Composite0.50%-0.20%3.00%21.50%
DJ Industrial Average-0.64%1.07%4.18%15.09%
S&P 4000.03%1.38%2.96%8.88%
Russell 2000-0.83%1.26%4.08%14.88%
S&P 500 Equal Weight-0.29%0.74%1.69%11.73%
STOXX Europe 50 (€)0.69%1.66%4.55%21.43%
STOXX Europe 600 (€)1.62%1.97%5.63%19.66%
MSCI EAFE Small Cap0.14%0.75%1.17%30.52%
FTSE 100 (£)2.58%1.85%6.43%25.24%
FTSE MIB (€)2.87%3.24%5.96%37.55%
CAC 40 (€)1.03%0.47%3.54%14.20%
DAX (€)0.42%1.89%1.71%22.00%
SWISS MKT (CHF)2.21%2.63%8.77%17.19%
TOPIX (Â¥)-1.17%0.15%7.85%21.50%
Nifty 50-0.31%-0.90%5.71%9.82%
Hang Seng (HKD)-1.10%-0.65%-3.89%28.07%
MSCI World0.16%0.42%2.78%21.13%
MSCI China Free-1.70%-1.48%-8.12%26.91%
MSCI EAFE0.20%1.83%3.71%30.52%
MSCI EM-1.51%0.33%2.04%30.80%
MSCI Brazil (BRL)-1.54%-0.96%7.72%32.60%
MSCI India (INR)-0.18%-0.72%5.31%6.96%

Fixed Income

Name1 Week (%)Month-to-Date (%)Quarter-to-Date (%)Year-to-Date (%)
Bloomberg US Aggregate0.34%-0.35%0.90%7.09%
Bloomberg Global Aggregate0.00%-0.21%-0.23%7.66%
Bloomberg Euro Aggregate-0.29%0.06%-0.44%14.11%
Bloomberg US High Yield0.22%0.21%0.95%8.24%
Bloomberg Euro High Yield (€)0.17%0.19%0.43%4.61%

Blend Fund Performance Year To Date

(22/12/25)1 Week (%)1 Month (%)6 Months (%)Year-to-Date (%) 1 Year (%) 2 Years (%)
Aditum Global Discovery0.91%5.25%15.26%21.77%21.70%32.97%
Aditum India Explorer Fund1.27%-0.51%1.84%15.84%--
Ashoka WhiteOak India Opportunities1.79%-0.70%-0.63%-3.28%-3.46%-
BlackRock GF World Healthscience USD-0.05%1.24%14.97%12.45%13.46%15.73%
Emirates Global Sukuk0.14%0.38%3.99%6.75%6.28%9.27%
Emirates MENA Fixed Income0.07%0.35%6.91%9.25%8.19%10.62%
Emirates MENA Top Companies-2.03%-1.08%4.67%-0.47%-0.58%2.89%
Franklin Gold and Precious Metals USD8.42%29.61%81.43%199.55%197.30%247.29%
Harris Associates Global Equity0.06%7.59%10.36%18.74%19.04%21.05%
Loomis Sayles Global Growth Equity0.59%3.28%8.18%16.78%14.72%41.82%
Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity0.29%0.87%4.43%7.66%7.93%13.18%
Loomis Sayles Multisector Income2.14%6.19%12.94%14.33%12.92%52.15%
PineBridge Japan Small Cap Equity-1.25%1.40%4.19%19.35%21.14%13.86%
UBAM 30 Global Leaders Equity0.49%2.74%6.03%9.07%7.97%14.65%
iShares US Corporate bond Index0.23%0.42%4.51%7.34%7.64%10.59%
iShares Developed World Index0.15%3.59%14.25%20.18%20.95%43.66%

Direct Fund

Nexus Blend Funds

(22/12/25)1 Week (%) 1 Month (%) 6 Months (%) Year-to-Date (%) 1 Year (%) 2 Years (%)
US Dollar High Risk Blend-0.54%2.99%11.27%19.73%19.14%35.08%
US Dollar Medium-High Risk Blend-0.59%2.39%11.31%18.80%18.36%34.84%
US Dollar Medium Risk Blend-0.38%2.14%10.46%17.26%16.81%31.79%
US Dollar Medium-Low Risk Blend0.07%1.92%9.32%16.04%15.50%26.60%
US Dollar Low Risk Blend0.19%1.71%8.46%13.93%13.05%20.61%

Zurich Mirror Funds

(22/12/25)1 Week (%) 1 Month (%)6 Months (%)Year-to-Date(%) 1 Year (%) 2 Years (%)
Canaccord Genuity Balanced-0.27%1.87%6.85%9.61%9.66%19.04%
Canaccord Genuity Growth-0.41%2.46%8.67%10.96%11.17%22.26%
Canaccord Genuity Opportunity-0.25%3.04%10.17%14.25%14.58%28.75%
Emirates Emerging Market Debt0.20%-0.25%5.34%6.11%4.98%14.31%
Emirates Islamic Global Balanced-0.58%1.11%8.37%11.31%10.03%19.60%

* Data is lagged by 1 day.
**   Data is lagged by 2 days.