Wednesday 12 November 2025
Weekly Market Update
Overview
Last week, global markets showed a mixed but cautious tone. In developed markets, U.S. stocks fell as concerns over high valuations, AI spending, and the historic government shutdown weighed on sentiment, with growth underperforming value. Europe also saw declines amid worries over AI-related stock valuations, while most central banks held rates steady. In Japan, markets dropped after record highs as investors booked profits, the yen strengthened, and real wages continued to fall despite rising nominal wages. In emerging markets, China’s stocks rose on easing U.S.-China trade tensions, India ended the week lower due to foreign fund outflows and profit-taking, while GCC economies showed resilience with strong PMI readings in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt. Commodities were uneven but mostly positive, with gains in natural gas, diesel, and gold, while crude oil remained rangebound. FX markets stayed calm despite weaker risk sentiment, with the U.S. dollar consolidating, EURUSD testing key resistance, USDJPY holding above support, and GBP showing some relief after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged. Overall, markets reflected cautious optimism, selective strength in commodities and the GCC, and continued sensitivity to economic data and geopolitical risks.
The Week Ahead
Mon: USD, ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Tue: USD, JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)
Wed: USD, Crude Oil Inventories
Thu: UK, BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
Fri: CNY, Trade Balance (USD) (Oct)
Outlook: The tug-of-war between global economic growth and inflation appears to have reached a more feasible balancing point. Across equity markets, the narrowing of the gulf between growth and value is likely to continue as a greater number of industries start to benefit from higher earnings and improving monetary and fiscal policies. 2025 likely will not be a year of robust economic (GDP growth: U.S. growth is forecast to grow at a modest 1.5%-2.5%, with the Eurozone and Chinese growth lagging. In this environment, investors could benefit from an increased allocation towards value names whilst avoiding an overexposure to growth. Nonetheless, we continue to buy high-quality, profitable, blue-chip equities with strong balance sheets and positive free-cashflow yields. Fixed-income securities also offer attractive yields at these levels, without subjecting portfolios to much downside risk. Emerging market equities and small companies are also available at attractive valuations relative to US Blue Chips. The overall outlook for equities remains cautiously optimistic, supported by a more dovish US Federal Reserve and a resilient US economy, though global risks and sector-specific performance will be closely watched.
Asset class forecasts*
Developed Markets
North America
Last week, U.S. equity markets ended lower as concerns over high valuations and AI spending weighed on growth stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite leading declines and growth underperforming value by the widest margin since February. Sentiment was further dampened by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown—the longest in history—which raised worries about economic disruption, missing data, and operational strains such as the FAA reducing flights. Economic data was mixed: ADP reported 42,000 private-sector jobs added in October, though hiring remained uneven, while Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted that layoffs surged to their highest level in over 20 years. The ISM Services PMI showed services activity expanding, while manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month. Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since 2022 amid shutdown concerns and rising inflation expectations. In fixed income, Treasuries and municipal bonds gained, while high-yield corporate bonds lagged amid broader equity weakness.
Europe & UK
Last week, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 1.24% lower in local currency, as investor sentiment was weighed down by concerns over high valuations in artificial intelligence-related stocks. Major European markets also declined, with Italy’s FTSE MIB slipping 0.60%, Germany’s DAX falling 1.62%, France’s CAC 40 dropping 2.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 down 0.36%, reflecting a broad regional pullback. On the central banking front, most major European and UK banks held policy rates steady as expected. The Bank of England kept its key rate at 4.0%, with the Monetary Policy Committee voting five to four in favor of maintaining rates, while Governor Andrew Bailey noted that market expectations for a potential December rate cut were reasonable. Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, maintained its policy rate at 1.75%, with Governor Erik Thedeen indicating it is likely to remain at this level for some time, while Norway’s Norges Bank held its rate at 4.0%, citing persistently high inflation and signaling that a rate cut would not be appropriate in the near term.
Japan
Last week, Japan’s stock markets fell, with the Nikkei 225 dropping 4.07% and the broader TOPIX declining 0.99% after both indexes had reached record highs in late October. Gains in AI-related technology and major chip stocks had driven recent rallies, but investors began locking in profits amid concerns over stretched valuations. Risk aversion boosted demand for safer assets, strengthening the yen to around JPY 153 against the U.S. dollar, supported by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s comments that the government is closely monitoring rapid currency movements. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose slightly to 1.68% as expectations grew that the Bank of Japan may tighten monetary policy further, focusing on wage trends. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi emphasized that Japan has yet to achieve sustainable price growth supported by solid wage gains and indicated that her government plans to use fiscal measures to boost household income, consumer sentiment, and the broader economy, with a draft stimulus package expected this month.
Emerging Markets
China
During the last week, Mainland Chinese stock markets rose, supported by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, with the CSI 300 Index up 0.82% and the Shanghai Composite climbing 1.08%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 1.29%.The weekly gains pushed the CSI 300 to its highest level in nearly four years, despite ongoing concerns about China’s growth outlook. Investor sentiment improved following a one-year truce in the U.S.-China trade dispute, agreed after the leaders met at the APEC summit in South Korea. While the summit offered few concrete details, analysts noted that the main takeaway was a pragmatic approach, with countries adjusting to a changing global environment, trading where possible, and hedging where necessary. However, prolonged strategic competition between the U.S. and China is expected to continue, potentially affecting areas beyond trade.
India
Indian equity markets ended the last week cautiously after a volatile start, weighed down by persistent foreign fund outflows, weak global cues, and profit-booking, although late rebounds in financials and metals helped limit losses. The Nifty 50 closed at 25,492, down 1.49% for the week, while the Midcap index fell 0.58% and the Smallcap index declined sharply by 2.25%, driven by profit-taking following October’s rally and net FII outflows of around ₹3,263 crore versus DII inflows of ₹5,284 crore. The rupee traded near ₹88.67 per USD, reflecting weakness against a strong dollar, and Brent crude slipped 0.71% to $63.94 per barrel amid weak demand signals and geopolitical concerns. Sector-wise, most indices closed lower, with Nifty Consumer Durables falling 3.31%, followed by Nifty Metal (-2.82%), Nifty Infrastructure (-2.24%), Nifty IT (-2.20%) amid the global tech sell-off, and Nifty FMCG down 1.61% due to post-festive season demand weakness and profit booking. In contrast, Nifty PSU Banks rebounded strongly, gaining 3.64%, while Nifty Capital Markets ended the week with marginal gains.
MENA
Last week, in the GCC, macro fundamentals remained strong: UAE’s non-oil PMI stayed in growth territory at 53.8, with Dubai reaching a nine-month high of 54.5, driven by new orders and higher output. Saudi Arabia’s PMI surged to 60.2, one of its best non-oil performances since 2014, supported by strong domestic and external demand and robust hiring, despite a widening fiscal deficit. Qatar’s PMI eased to 50.6, reflecting modest growth in non-oil private activity, though employment rose at one of the fastest rates on record and the 12-month outlook remained positive. Egypt’s PMI improved slightly to 49.2, with the slowest decline in non-oil output volumes in eight months, supporting expectations of real GDP growth above 4.0% this year. Overall, markets and regional economies are navigating a constructive consolidation phase, with growth and resilience evident across most GCC and regional indicators.
Commodities and Forex
Commodities
Last week, OPEC+ announced another small oil supply increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December but said it will pause further hikes during the first quarter of 2026, as oil markets are expected to face a surplus early next year. However, new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil could disrupt supply and reduce that surplus, so the group may revisit its policy if needed. Oil prices have risen recently as traders increased their bullish bets on Brent and Gasoil futures, driven by the sanctions and worries about reduced Russian diesel exports due to sanctions and refinery attacks. In the U.S., the number of active oil rigs fell by six to 414, showing weaker drilling activity, though production still hit a record 13.79 million barrels per day in August. Meanwhile, in metals, China’s main industry group urged the government to limit new copper, zinc, and lead smelting capacity to address overproduction and record-low processing fees, marking the biggest metals market intervention since 2017. Gold prices also came under pressure after China ended a tax rebate that made gold purchases cheaper, making it more expensive for local buyers.
Currencies
Last week the U.S. dollar stayed strong near a three-month high, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve might pause further rate cuts this year after its recent 25-basis-point reduction. Markets now see about a 68% chance of another cut in December. With the U.S. government shutdown delaying key labor data, investors are focusing on private reports like the ISM manufacturing survey and ADP jobs data for clues about the economy. In Europe, the euro fell to a three-month low as weak factory data from Germany and France kept pressure on the currency, while the ECB held rates steady at 2%. The British pound also slipped ahead of the Bank of England meeting and political tensions around Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. In Asia, the yen weakened slightly as the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but hinted at a possible future hike, and China’s yuan edged lower after softer-than-expected manufacturing growth.
Commodities
| Name | 07/11/25 | 30/09/25 | 30/06/25 | 31/12/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil ($/barrel) | $59.75 | $62.37 | $65.11 | $71.72 |
| Brent Oil ($/barrel) | $63.63 | $67.02 | $67.61 | $74.64 |
| Gold ($/oz) | $4001.26 | $3858.96 | $3303.14 | $2624.50 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) | $4.32 | $3.30 | $3.46 | $3.63 |
Currency
| Name | 07/11/25 | 30/09/25 | 30/06/25 | 31/12/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro (€/$) | 1.1566 | 1.1734 | 1.1787 | 1.0354 |
| Pound (£/$) | 1.3162 | 1.3446 | 1.3732 | 1.2516 |
| Japanese Yen (Â¥/$) | 153.42 | 147.90 | 144.03 | 157.20 |
| Swiss Franc (CHF/€) | 0.9309 | 0.9345 | 0.9348 | 0.9401 |
| Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY/$) | 7.1221 | 7.1224 | 7.1638 | 7.2993 |
Index Valuations
Index Return
| Name | 1 Week (%) | Month-to-Date (%) | Quarter-to-Date (%) | Year-to-Date (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -1.61% | -1.61% | 0.69% | 15.61% |
| NASDAQ Composite | -3.03% | -3.03% | 1.55% | 19.78% |
| DJ Industrial Average | -1.21% | -1.21% | 1.35% | 11.97% |
| S&P 400 | -0.08% | -0.08% | -0.55% | 5.17% |
| Russell 2000 | -1.86% | -1.86% | -0.09% | 10.29% |
| S&P 500 Equal Weight | -0.15% | -0.15% | -1.10% | 8.67% |
| STOXX Europe 50 (€) | -1.64% | -1.64% | 0.86% | 17.14% |
| STOXX Europe 600 (€) | -1.19% | -1.19% | 1.36% | 14.82% |
| MSCI EAFE Small Cap | -1.66% | -1.66% | -2.45% | 25.86% |
| FTSE 100 (£) | -0.26% | -0.26% | 3.82% | 22.17% |
| FTSE MIB (€) | -0.60% | -0.60% | 0.45% | 30.40% |
| CAC 40 (€) | -2.10% | -2.10% | 0.84% | 11.22% |
| DAX (€) | -1.62% | -1.62% | -1.30% | 18.39% |
| SWISS MKT (CHF) | 0.52% | 0.52% | 1.56% | 9.41% |
| TOPIX (Â¥) | -0.99% | -0.99% | 5.14% | 18.45% |
| Nifty 50 | -0.89% | -0.89% | 3.74% | 7.81% |
| Hang Seng (HKD) | 1.29% | 1.29% | -2.16% | 30.82% |
| MSCI World | -1.46% | -1.46% | 0.53% | 18.48% |
| MSCI China Free | 0.45% | 0.45% | -3.46% | 33.34% |
| MSCI EAFE | -0.76% | -0.76% | 0.43% | 26.38% |
| MSCI EM | -1.39% | -1.39% | 2.74% | 31.70% |
| MSCI Brazil (BRL) | 2.72% | 2.72% | 4.39% | 28.51% |
| MSCI India (INR) | -0.61% | -0.61% | 3.73% | 5.36% |
Fixed Income
| Name | 1 Week (%) | Month-to-Date (%) | Quarter-to-Date (%) | Year-to-Date (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg US Aggregate | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.65% | 6.82% |
| Bloomberg Global Aggregate | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.31% | 7.57% |
| Bloomberg Euro Aggregate | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.93% | 13.55% |
| Bloomberg US High Yield | -0.29% | -0.29% | -0.14% | 7.07% |
| Bloomberg Euro High Yield (€) | -0.19% | -0.19% | -0.13% | 4.04% |
Blend Fund Performance Year To Date
| 11/11/25 | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aditum Global Discovery | -1.13% | -1.32% | 11.22% | 14.69% | 10.19% | 32.85% |
| Aditum India Explorer Fund | -1.16% | 0.46% | 3.28% | 14.70% | - | - |
| Ashoka WhiteOak India Opportunities | -1.16% | 0.72% | 4.55% | -2.79% | -2.47% | - |
| BlackRock GF World Healthscience USD | 2.07% | 0.55% | 8.65% | 6.98% | -0.67% | 17.87% |
| Emirates Global Sukuk | -0.11% | 0.45% | 4.21% | 6.32% | 6.26% | 13.82% |
| Emirates MENA Fixed Income | -0.19% | 0.82% | 7.57% | 8.94% | 8.52% | 19.51% |
| Emirates MENA Top Companies | -2.26% | -1.64% | 2.84% | 3.05% | 4.06% | 10.01% |
| Franklin Gold and Precious Metals USD | 4.55% | -0.69% | 51.87% | 139.27% | 111.48% | 223.93% |
| Harris Associates Global Equity | -0.35% | -0.50% | 6.35% | 11.62% | 7.40% | 25.12% |
| Loomis Sayles Global Growth Equity | -4.01% | -4.63% | 15.64% | 15.75% | 16.00% | 57.86% |
| Loomis Sayles Multisector Income | 0.00% | -0.06% | 4.53% | 6.79% | 6.20% | 19.82% |
| PineBridge Japan Small Cap Equity | 1.00% | -1.42% | 6.68% | 18.34% | 17.43% | 21.78% |
| UBAM 30 Global Leaders Equity | -1.42% | -1.80% | 8.30% | 7.13% | 3.40% | 23.32% |
| iShares US Corporate bond Index | -0.37% | 0.10% | 5.67% | 7.02% | 6.47% | 17.66% |
| iShares Developed World Index | -1.26% | -0.08% | 17.40% | 17.77% | 16.26% | 53.37% |
Direct Fund
Nexus Blend Funds
| 11/11/25 | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar High Risk Blend | -1.60% | -0.60% | 13.19% | 16.59% | 14.40% | 43.95% |
| US Dollar Medium-High Risk Blend | -1.31% | -0.17% | 13.53% | 16.10% | 13.97% | 43.26% |
| US Dollar Medium Risk Blend | -1.11% | -0.20% | 12.12% | 14.73% | 12.77% | 39.70% |
| US Dollar Medium-Low Risk Blend | -0.70% | 0.01% | 9.54% | 13.51% | 11.38% | 32.74% |
| US Dollar Low Risk Blend | -0.54% | 0.28% | 7.99% | 11.75% | 10.45% | 25.36% |
Zurich Mirror Funds
| 11/11/25 | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date(%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canaccord Genuity Balanced | -1.19% | -0.98% | 7.92% | 8.33% | 6.11% | 25.04% |
| Canaccord Genuity Growth | -1.51% | -1.11% | 10.32% | 9.45% | 6.99% | 29.09% |
| Canaccord Genuity Opportunity | -1.45% | -1.01% | 10.69% | 11.61% | 9.87% | 33.54% |
| Emirates Emerging Market Debt | -0.53% | 1.26% | 7.72% | 6.77% | 7.09% | 26.41% |
| Emirates Islamic Global Balanced | -0.92% | 0.45% | 10.67% | 10.99% | 10.23% | 24.65% |
| Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity | -3.12% | -2.84% | 17.97% | 9.18% | 12.30% | 60.04% |
* Data is lagged by 1 day.
**Â Â Data is lagged by 2 days.