Wednesday 05 November 2025
Weekly Market Update
Overview
Last week, global markets had a mixed week. In the U.S., large tech stocks lifted indexes like the Nasdaq, but smaller companies lagged. Earnings were mostly positive, though reactions to big tech results were uneven. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps but hinted at no further cuts soon, pushing Treasury yields higher. In Europe, markets eased after reaching record highs as hopes for more ECB rate cuts faded, while inflation stayed near target. The UK market rose slightly, helped by a weaker pound. Japan’s stocks hit record highs, supported by strong corporate results and stimulus optimism, even as the yen weakened. Among emerging markets, China’s stocks were mixed as growth worries offset optimism about trade easing with the U.S., and India’s markets stayed flat with selective sector gains. In the MENA region, equities rose for a second month, supported by stable oil prices and regional rate cuts, though global risks kept sentiment cautious. In commodities, OPEC+ announced a small output increase for December but plans to pause further hikes early next year, while new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil firms lifted oil prices. Metal prices faced pressure due to oversupply concerns, and gold demand weakened after China removed tax rebates. The U.S. dollar stayed strong on expectations the Fed may pause rate cuts, while the euro, pound, yen, and yuan all softened on weaker economic signals.
The Week Ahead
Mon: USD, ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Tue: USD, JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)
Wed: USD, Crude Oil Inventories
Thu: UK, BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
Fri: CNY, Trade Balance (USD) (Oct)
Outlook: The tug-of-war between global economic growth and inflation appears to have reached a more feasible balancing point. Across equity markets, the narrowing of the gulf between growth and value is likely to continue as a greater number of industries start to benefit from higher earnings and improving monetary and fiscal policies. 2025 likely will not be a year of robust economic (GDP growth: U.S. growth is forecast to grow at a modest 1.5%-2.5%, with the Eurozone and Chinese growth lagging. In this environment, investors could benefit from an increased allocation towards value names whilst avoiding an overexposure to growth. Nonetheless, we continue to buy high-quality, profitable, blue-chip equities with strong balance sheets and positive free-cashflow yields. Fixed-income securities also offer attractive yields at these levels, without subjecting portfolios to much downside risk. Emerging market equities and small companies are also available at attractive valuations relative to US Blue Chips. The overall outlook for equities remains cautiously optimistic, supported by a more dovish US Federal Reserve and a resilient US economy, though global risks and sector-specific performance will be closely watched.
Asset class forecasts*
Developed Markets
North America
During the last week, U.S. stock indexes showed a mixed performance, with large-cap tech-heavy indexes posting gains while smaller-cap stocks lagged. The Nasdaq Composite led the rally, driven by strong performance from mega-cap technology companies benefiting from AI-related spending, though market breadth remained narrow as most S&P 500 sectors fell and the equal-weighted S&P 500 underperformed the market-cap weighted index by 2.68 percentage points. Third-quarter earnings continued, with 64% of S&P 500 companies reporting, and 83% beating estimates; reactions to the “Magnificent Seven” tech firms were mixed, as Microsoft, Apple, and Meta declined while Amazon and Alphabet rose, and NVIDIA’s market cap briefly surpassed USD 5 trillion. U.S. and China agreed to a one-year trade truce, including reduced U.S. tariffs and resumed Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, providing temporary market relief. The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, though two officials dissented, and Chair Powell signalled that further cuts this year are not guaranteed, reflecting caution amid above-target inflation and a slowing labour market. Treasury yields rose on Powell’s hawkish comments, municipal bonds were mixed, and investment-grade corporates underperformed Treasuries, while high-yield sentiment was supported by earnings but tempered by reduced expectations for a December rate cut.
Europe & UK
During the last week, European stock markets were mixed, with the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index falling 0.67% after earlier reaching a record high, as expectations for further ECB rate cuts eased. France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.27%, Germany’s DAX fell 1.16%, Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 1.62%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.74%, partly supported by a weaker pound, which helps multinational companies with overseas earnings. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged for the third straight meeting, noting that inflation remains near the 2% target and that decisions will be data driven. Eurozone headline inflation slowed slightly to 2.1% in October, while core inflation held at 2.4%, and GDP growth picked up to 0.2% in Q3, led by France and Spain. In the UK, the housing market showed resilience, with house prices rising 0.3% in October and mortgage approvals reaching their highest level in nine months.
Japan
Japan’s stock markets rose to new record highs last week, with the Nikkei 225 up 6.31% and the broader TOPIX rising 1.91%. October saw the Nikkei jump 16.6%, its biggest monthly gain since January 1994, supported by the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged, optimism over a potential large stimulus package, and strong tech earnings from companies like Amazon and Apple. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled that a rate hike is increasingly likely but introduced new conditions tied to wage negotiations, particularly in the auto sector. The yen weakened to around JPY 154 per USD, prompting a warning from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama about disorderly market movements. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield stayed near 1.65%. On the economic front, core consumer prices in Tokyo rose 2.8% year-over-year, retail sales rebounded 0.5%, and unemployment held steady at 2.6%, the highest since July 2024.
Emerging Markets
China
Last week mainland Chinese stock markets finished the week mixed, with the CSI 300 falling 0.43%, the Shanghai Composite rising slightly by 0.11%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropping 0.97%. Investor concerns about slower long-term growth outweighed optimism from easing U.S.-China trade tensions. After China’s recent four-day meeting of top Communist Party leaders, the government pledged to focus more on domestic demand and boosting consumption but did not set specific targets. Analysts noted that while promoting consumption is positive, China’s household spending still accounts for only about 40% of GDP, below the global average of 56%, highlighting ongoing growth challenges.
India
Indian equity markets ended the last week mostly flat after a volatile session, as investors balanced mixed global cues and quarterly earnings. The Sensex fell 0.28% to 84,112, while the Nifty 50 gained 0.65% to 25,722. Midcap and small-cap indices declined 0.48% and 0.39%, respectively, showing selective buying in broader markets. IT and Pharma stocks led gains, supported by strong Q2 results and their defensive appeal, while Metals and PSU Banks faced profit booking after recent rallies. FMCG stocks remained stable, and Auto shares showed slight weakness following normalization in festive season demand. The Indian rupee traded around â‚ą88.70 per USD, weakening amid global dollar strength, and Brent crude fell 2.1% to $64.55 per barrel on demand concerns.
MENA
Last week, the MENA credit and equity markets showed a cautiously positive tone. The MSCI GCC Index rose about 1.2 % in October, marking its second straight month of gains, amid stable oil prices, policy support and improved investor confidence. Although credit spreads in the region stayed under pressure in spots, regional markets benefitted from rate cuts by many GCC central banks and upbeat corporate performance. However, uncertainty remains high due to heavy issuance, global rate outlook worries and geopolitical risks, meaning investors are still selective rather than broadly aggressive.
Commodities and Forex
Commodities
Last week, OPEC+ announced another small oil supply increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December but said it will pause further hikes during the first quarter of 2026, as oil markets are expected to face a surplus early next year. However, new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil could disrupt supply and reduce that surplus, so the group may revisit its policy if needed. Oil prices have risen recently as traders increased their bullish bets on Brent and Gasoil futures, driven by the sanctions and worries about reduced Russian diesel exports due to sanctions and refinery attacks. In the U.S., the number of active oil rigs fell by six to 414, showing weaker drilling activity, though production still hit a record 13.79 million barrels per day in August. Meanwhile, in metals, China’s main industry group urged the government to limit new copper, zinc, and lead smelting capacity to address overproduction and record-low processing fees, marking the biggest metals market intervention since 2017. Gold prices also came under pressure after China ended a tax rebate that made gold purchases cheaper, making it more expensive for local buyers.
Currencies
Last week the U.S. dollar stayed strong near a three-month high, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve might pause further rate cuts this year after its recent 25-basis-point reduction. Markets now see about a 68% chance of another cut in December. With the U.S. government shutdown delaying key labor data, investors are focusing on private reports like the ISM manufacturing survey and ADP jobs data for clues about the economy. In Europe, the euro fell to a three-month low as weak factory data from Germany and France kept pressure on the currency, while the ECB held rates steady at 2%. The British pound also slipped ahead of the Bank of England meeting and political tensions around Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. In Asia, the yen weakened slightly as the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but hinted at a possible future hike, and China’s yuan edged lower after softer-than-expected manufacturing growth.
Commodities
| Name | 24/10/25 | 30/09/25 | 30/06/25 | 31/12/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil ($/barrel) | $61.50 | $62.37 | $65.11 | $71.72 |
| Brent Oil ($/barrel) | $65.94 | $67.02 | $67.61 | $74.64 |
| Gold ($/oz) | $4113.05 | $3858.96 | $3303.14 | $2624.50 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) | $3.30 | $3.30 | $3.46 | $3.63 |
Currency
| Name | 24/10/25 | 30/09/25 | 30/06/25 | 31/12/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro (€/$) | 1.1627 | 1.1734 | 1.1787 | 1.0354 |
| Pound (ÂŁ/$) | 1.3311 | 1.3446 | 1.3732 | 1.2516 |
| Japanese Yen (ÂĄ/$) | 152.86 | 147.90 | 144.03 | 157.20 |
| Swiss Franc (CHF/€) | 0.9251 | 0.9345 | 0.9348 | 0.9401 |
| Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY/$) | 7.1225 | 7.1224 | 7.1638 | 7.2993 |
Index Valuations
Index Return
| Name | 1 Week (%) | Month-to-Date (%) | Quarter-to-Date (%) | Year-to-Date (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 1.93% | 1.61% | 1.61% | 16.66% |
| NASDAQ Composite | 2.31% | 2.42% | 2.42% | 20.81% |
| DJ Industrial Average | 2.24% | 1.82% | 1.82% | 12.49% |
| S&P 400 | 2.33% | 1.13% | 1.13% | 6.94% |
| Russell 2000 | 2.51% | 3.20% | 3.20% | 13.91% |
| S&P 500 Equal Weight | 1.72% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 10.75% |
| STOXX Europe 50 (€) | 1.20% | 2.68% | 2.68% | 19.26% |
| STOXX Europe 600 (€) | 1.69% | 3.24% | 3.24% | 16.95% |
| MSCI EAFE Small Cap | 1.89% | 0.49% | 0.49% | 29.63% |
| FTSE 100 (ÂŁ) | 3.13% | 3.32% | 3.32% | 21.58% |
| FTSE MIB (€) | 1.74% | -0.56% | -0.56% | 29.09% |
| CAC 40 (€) | 0.63% | 4.33% | 4.33% | 15.07% |
| DAX (€) | 1.72% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 21.75% |
| SWISS MKT (CHF) | -0.60% | 3.79% | 3.79% | 11.82% |
| TOPIX (ÂĄ) | 3.12% | 4.20% | 4.20% | 17.40% |
| Nifty 50 | 0.33% | 4.81% | 4.84% | 9.09% |
| Hang Seng (HKD) | 3.62% | -2.59% | -2.55% | 30.41% |
| MSCI World | 1.75% | 1.56% | 1.56% | 19.69% |
| MSCI China Free | 3.91% | -2.27% | -2.27% | 34.98% |
| MSCI EAFE | 1.25% | 1.65% | 1.65% | 27.90% |
| MSCI EM | 2.05% | 3.27% | 3.27% | 32.35% |
| MSCI Brazil (BRL) | 2.29% | -0.44% | -0.44% | 22.56% |
| MSCI India (INR) | 0.37% | 4.41% | 4.41% | 6.04% |
Fixed Income
| Name | 1 Week (%) | Month-to-Date (%) | Quarter-to-Date (%) | Year-to-Date (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg US Aggregate | 0.17% | 1.20% | 1.20% | 7.41% |
| Bloomberg Global Aggregate | -0.19% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 8.13% |
| Bloomberg Euro Aggregate | -0.59% | -0.37% | -0.37% | 14.18% |
| Bloomberg US High Yield | 0.40% | 0.24% | 0.24% | 7.48% |
| Bloomberg Euro High Yield (€) | 0.25% | -0.16% | -0.16% | 4.00% |
Blend Fund Performance Year To Date
| (28/10/25) | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aditum Global Discovery | 0.25% | 1.98% | 15.20% | 16.95% | 12.51% | 36.40% |
| Aditum India Explorer Fund | -0.48% | 4.31% | 2.88% | 16.44% | - | - |
| Ashoka WhiteOak India Opportunities | 0.47% | 2.75% | 3.52% | -1.15% | -1.28% | - |
| BlackRock GF World Healthscience USD | 0.23% | 6.60% | 7.31% | 6.92% | -1.38% | 18.83% |
| Emirates Global Sukuk | 0.33% | 0.67% | 4.53% | 6.40% | 5.89% | 15.40% |
| Emirates MENA Fixed Income | 0.54% | 1.20% | 7.79% | 9.13% | 7.88% | 23.56% |
| Emirates MENA Top Companies | 0.23% | 1.29% | 5.23% | 5.13% | 8.58% | 16.06% |
| Franklin Gold and Precious Metals USD | -11.20% | -4.53% | 47.70% | 122.66% | 79.76% | 189.02% |
| Harris Associates Global Equity | 0.54% | 2.36% | 13.23% | 15.54% | 11.40% | 35.20% |
| Loomis Sayles Global Growth Equity | 1.53% | 3.02% | 26.32% | 23.75% | 27.35% | 82.56% |
| Loomis Sayles Multisector Income | 0.12% | 0.41% | 5.47% | 7.16% | 6.77% | 22.10% |
| PineBridge Japan Small Cap Equity | 0.30% | -4.43% | 10.40% | 21.31% | 22.33% | 26.74% |
| UBAM 30 Global Leaders Equity | 0.82% | 2.20% | 15.15% | 10.35% | 8.49% | 35.53% |
| iShares US Corporate bond Index | 0.25% | 1.59% | 5.92% | 8.11% | 7.65% | 21.12% |
| iShares Developed World Index | 1.69% | 3.44% | 22.63% | 20.28% | 20.60% | 66.63% |
Direct Fund
Nexus Blend Funds
| (28/10/25) | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar High Risk Blend | 0.44% | 4.15% | 18.05% | 18.99% | 16.85% | 52.69% |
| US Dollar Medium-High Risk Blend | 0.24% | 3.79% | 17.62% | 17.98% | 15.85% | 50.90% |
| US Dollar Medium Risk Blend | -0.08% | 3.28% | 15.61% | 16.35% | 14.27% | 46.55% |
| US Dollar Medium-Low Risk Blend | -0.66% | 2.94% | 12.04% | 14.69% | 11.96% | 37.93% |
| US Dollar Low Risk Blend | -0.71% | 2.73% | 9.95% | 12.73% | 10.65% | 28.91% |
Zurich Mirror Funds
| (28/10/25) | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date(%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canaccord Genuity Balanced | 0.54% | 2.00% | 11.45% | 9.87% | 8.14% | 30.67% |
| Canaccord Genuity Growth | 0.64% | 2.45% | 14.77% | 11.13% | 9.63% | 35.90% |
| Canaccord Genuity Opportunity | 0.58% | 2.19% | 14.96% | 13.38% | 12.69% | 40.72% |
| Emirates Emerging Market Debt | 0.92% | -0.15% | 7.74% | 6.48% | 6.35% | 30.29% |
| Emirates Islamic Balanced Managed | -0.03% | 1.52% | 13.52% | 10.75% | 9.21% | 25.78% |
| Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity | 1.85% | 4.24% | 26.85% | 13.98% | 22.51% | 80.46% |
* Data is lagged by 1 day.
**Â Â Data is lagged by 2 days.