October 2025
Monthly Market Update
Overview
During the last week, global markets had a positive week, supported by hopes of Fed rate cuts and easing U.S.-China trade tensions, though caution remained amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties. In the U.S., stocks rose on strong bank and tech earnings, cooler-than-expected inflation, and ongoing Fed rate-cut expectations, while Treasuries rallied and corporate bonds were steady. Europe and the UK also saw gains, with the STOXX Europe 600 and FTSE 100 hitting highs on resilient business activity, though manufacturing remained uneven. In Japan, equities fell slightly as a stronger yen and political changes weighed on sentiment, while inflation remained stable and bond yields stayed low.Â
Emerging markets were mixed: China’s equities declined amid weak domestic demand and policy caution, though Q3 GDP growth held at 4.8%, while India’s markets stayed near record highs on festive-season demand and strong foreign inflows. In MENA, GCC credit spreads tightened modestly, equities were flat, and debt issuance stayed active, with growth and inflation outlooks generally stable. Commodities showed a mixed picture: metals pulled back after strong gains, oil recovered from earlier lows, and agricultural markets remained sensitive to supply and demand. In currencies, the U.S. dollar was steady, the euro ticked slightly higher, the pound slipped, the yen weakened on fiscal stimulus expectations, and the yuan remained stable.Â
Overall, markets were shaped by central-bank guidance, trade developments, domestic demand, and investor caution, with selective gains rather than broad rallies.
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Outlook:Â The tug-of-war between global economic growth and inflation appears to have reached a more feasible balancing point. Across equity markets, the narrowing of the gulf between growth and value is likely to continue as a greater number of industries start to benefit from higher earnings and improving monetary and fiscal policies.Â
2025 likely will not be a year of robust economic (GDP growth: U.S. growth is forecast to grow at a modest 1.5%-2.5%, with the Eurozone and Chinese growth lagging. In this environment, investors could benefit from an increased allocation towards value names whilst avoiding an overexposure to growth. Nonetheless, we continue to buy high-quality, profitable, blue-chip equities with strong balance sheets and positive free-cashflow yields.Â
Fixed-income securities also offer attractive yields at these levels, without subjecting portfolios to much downside risk. Emerging market equities and small companies are also available at attractive valuations relative to US Blue Chips. The overall outlook for equities remains cautiously optimistic, supported by a more dovish US Federal Reserve and a resilient US economy, though global risks and sector-specific performance will be closely watched.
Developed Markets
North America
During the last week, U.S. stocks ended higher, riding a rebound after earlier jitters over trade and bank-credit risks eased, led by strong earnings from large banks and tech firms and boosted by hopes of easier policy from Federal Reserve. Equities were helped by a cooler-than-expected inflation reading (September CPI rose less than forecast) which lifted expectations that the Fed will cut rates soon. In fixed income, U.S. Treasuries rallied with the 10-year yield dipping near 4 % as investors sought safety amid credit worries at regional banks; the yield curve flattened further. Corporate bonds saw modest gains, especially in investment-grade names, while regional bank bonds underperformed given concerns about loan exposures. Commodities were mixed: oil rebounded, gold slipped, and the dollar edged lower. On the macro front, the government shutdown continued to delay key U.S. data, the labour market showed signs of slowing, and financial markets focused on upcoming Fed decisions and credit quality risks.
Europe & UK
Last week, European and UK markets were broadly positive, buoyed by softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, and signs of easing U.S.–China trade tensions, which helped lift the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 (albeit with uneven country performance). In the UK, the FTSE 100 rose to a record high as retail sales unexpectedly climbed and business activity improved. In the Eurozone, private sector business activity accelerated to the fastest in over a year, supporting sentiment despite ongoing weakness in some manufacturing segments. European bond markets strengthened with yields on 10-year German bunds and UK gilts falling as risk appetite increased. The euro edged up slightly versus the dollar while sterling softened somewhat after UK inflation held steady, underlining perceptions the Bank of England may stay cautious. Overall, while some country indices lagged and manufacturing remained patchy, the combination of global trade hopes, central-bank dovishness and resilient business-activity numbers helped underpin equity returns and improved credit conditions across much of Europe and the UK.
Japan
During the last week, Japan’s financial markets were mixed: equities lagged as the Nikkei 225 declined around 1.1% and the broader TOPIX also fell, weighed by a stronger yen and ongoing uncertainty around economic growth and politics. The yen appreciated modestly as safe-haven flows picked up while investors digested the transition to a new government under Sanae Takaichi and prospects for expansionary fiscal policy. On the economic data front, inflation remains steady at around 2.9%, supporting a view that the Bank of Japan may revise up its growth forecasts though it remains cautious about timing further rate hikes. Meanwhile, overseas investors continued to show strong inflows into Japanese equities (more than ¥5 trillion over the prior weeks) even as domestic investors pulled back. In bonds, yields remained subdued as global risk sentiment improved but the stronger yen and uncertainty around policy kept the mood cautious. Overall, Japanese markets are balancing optimism around structural reforms and international investor interest against domestic policy shifts, currency risks and modest growth headwinds.
Emerging Markets
China
During the last week, China’s market and economic outlook were under pressure as the economy continued to slow and the leadership held its important four-day policy meeting. Equity markets slipped, with mainland indexes down due to weak domestic demand, the ongoing property slump and mixed global trade signals. The economy grew 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, the slowest pace in a year and down from 5.2% in Q2. Industrial output held up better (around +6.5% in September) but retail sales and fixed-asset investment remained weak. The government meeting (the 4th Plenum of the 20th Central Committee) took place from 20–23 October and focused on the next five-year plan and structural reforms. Markets are now looking for signs of more supportive fiscal and monetary policy, with a senior adviser to the People’s Bank of China warning that targeted stimulus is needed to shore up demand. Overall, China remains on track for its ~5% annual growth target, but the momentum is fading, and investor sentiment is cautious as domestic consumption remains weak and structural challenges loom.
India
During the last week, Indian equity markets held firm, with the Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex trading near record highs as strong domestic demand, festive-season optimism and hopes of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut provided backing. Foreign institutional investors (FPIs) were modest net buyers of equities (about US$ 97 million for the week) despite appearing cautious. The Indian rupee appreciated to around ₹87.6-88 per US dollar, driven by favourable flows and central bank intervention. Meanwhile, the country’s foreign-exchange reserves rose to about US$ 702.3 billion, which added to the stability backdrop. Sector-wise, banking, auto and domestic-consumption names outperformed, while metal and energy stocks saw profit-taking. On the macro front, a recent poll lifted India’s GDP growth forecast to ~6.7% for the current fiscal year, reflecting stronger domestic activity. Overall, the week was one of consolidation near highs, underpinned by domestic strength and improved sentiment, though investors remained watchful of global trade risks and foreign-flow momentum.
MENA
During the last week MENA credit markets experienced a mixed performance. while earlier concerns around broader emerging-market spreads eased somewhat, many GCC and regional issuers still faced pressure and volatility. According to the latest data, regional credit spreads tightened modestly rather than widened — for example, the 5-year CDS for Saudi Arabia fell by 6 bp, and for Egypt by 46 bp on the week. Equity markets also presented a bit of a two-speed picture: GCC equities were mostly flat to slightly positive overall (+0.1% for the S&P Pan Arab Composite) even while some large Saudi names dragged the overall index. Debt issuance remained active, especially for sovereigns and high-grade corporates, as issuers sought to lock in favourable funding ahead of any potential global rate movements. Macro-economically, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that the MENA region’s growth outlook is firming (3.3% in 2025, rising to 3.7% in 2026) and inflation in the GCC is expected to remain low (~2%) even as non-oil sectors pick up. Overall, investors appeared cautious: while lower U.S. yields and hopes for Fed cuts supported sentiment, lingering geopolitical risks and high issuance volumes kept a lid on spread compression and encouraged selective positioning rather than broad risk-taking.
Commodities and Forex
Commodities
Last week, commodities showed a mixed performance: in precious metals after a strong run, Gold and Silver pulled back — gold slipped over 3% after topping record highs, while silver also fell amid profit-taking and softer safe-haven demand. In energy, Brent crude and WTI crude oil prices rebounded somewhat mid-week, recovering from earlier five-month lows driven by supply-concern talk and a tight-supply narrative, though traders remain cautious given global demand risk. In the agricultural space, soft commodity markets saw continued pressure: grains such as wheat remain weighed down by strong global supply forecasts, while beans and corn are tracking cautiously amid uncertain demand. Overall, the theme this week was a shift from broad rallies to selective strength: metals faced an intra-week correction after rapid gains, energy and agricultural remain sensitive to demand/supply cues, and underlying the whole move are central-bank rate hopes and steady risk sentiment.
Currencies
The U.S. dollar held relatively steady through the last week, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around ~98.5, as markets balanced hopes of a near-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve against ongoing global risk and data surprises. Against other major currencies, the Euro (EUR/USD) ticked up slightly to around 1.1626 as Europe’s data stayed mixed and the Fed cut hopes mellowed. The British pound (GBP/USD) slipped to about 1.3310-1.3320 on the week, weighed by unexpectedly sticky inflation in the UK and concerns over increased government borrowing. The Japanese yen weakened significantly, with USD/JPY climbing to roughly 152.8, reflecting expectations of more fiscal stimulus under the incoming government and less chance of a quick rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile the Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) remained largely stable around ~7.118, with China’s central bank fixing a firm midpoint and markets taking a wait-and-see approach amid trade and growth uncertainties. Overall, the currency markets were guided by central-bank expectations, geopolitics and trade signals rather than a dramatic shift in the dollar’s trend.
Commodities
| Name | 24/10/25 | 30/09/25 | 30/06/25 | 31/12/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oil ($/barrel) | $61.50 | $62.37 | $65.11 | $71.72 |
| Brent Oil ($/barrel) | $65.94 | $67.02 | $67.61 | $74.64 |
| Gold ($/oz) | $4113.05 | $3858.96 | $3303.14 | $2624.50 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) | $3.30 | $3.30 | $3.46 | $3.63 |
Currencies
| Name | 24/10/25 | 30/09/25 | 30/06/25 | 31/12/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro (€/$) | 1.1627 | 1.1734 | 1.1787 | 1.0354 |
| Pound (£/$) | 1.3311 | 1.3446 | 1.3732 | 1.2516 |
| Japanese Yen (Â¥/$) | 152.86 | 147.90 | 144.03 | 157.20 |
| Swiss Franc (CHF/€) | 0.9251 | 0.9345 | 0.9348 | 0.9401 |
| Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY/$) | 7.1225 | 7.1224 | 7.1638 | 7.2993 |
Index Valuations
Index Return
| Name | 1 Week (%) | Month-to-Date (%) | Quarter-to-Date (%) | Year-to-Date (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 1.93% | 1.61% | 1.61% | 16.66% |
| NASDAQ Composite | 2.31% | 2.42% | 2.42% | 20.81% |
| DJ Industrial Average | 2.24% | 1.82% | 1.82% | 12.49% |
| S&P 400 | 2.33% | 1.13% | 1.13% | 6.94% |
| Russell 2000 | 2.51% | 3.20% | 3.20% | 13.91% |
| S&P 500 Equal Weight | 1.72% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 10.75% |
| STOXX Europe 50 (€) | 1.20% | 2.68% | 2.68% | 19.26% |
| STOXX Europe 600 (€) | 1.69% | 3.24% | 3.24% | 16.95% |
| MSCI EAFE Small Cap | 1.89% | 0.49% | 0.49% | 29.63% |
| FTSE 100 (£) | 3.13% | 3.32% | 3.32% | 21.58% |
| FTSE MIB (€) | 1.74% | -0.56% | -0.56% | 29.09% |
| CAC 40 (€) | 0.63% | 4.33% | 4.33% | 15.07% |
| DAX (€) | 1.72% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 21.75% |
| SWISS MKT (CHF) | -0.60% | 3.79% | 3.79% | 11.82% |
| TOPIX (Â¥) | 3.12% | 4.20% | 4.20% | 17.40% |
| Nifty 50 | 0.33% | 4.81% | 4.84% | 9.09% |
| Hang Seng (HKD) | 3.62% | -2.59% | -2.55% | 30.41% |
| MSCI World | 1.75% | 1.56% | 1.56% | 19.69% |
| MSCI China Free | 3.91% | -2.27% | -2.27% | 34.98% |
| MSCI EAFE | 1.25% | 1.65% | 1.65% | 27.90% |
| MSCI EM | 2.05% | 3.27% | 3.27% | 32.35% |
| MSCI Brazil (BRL) | 2.29% | -0.44% | -0.44% | 22.56% |
| MSCI India (INR) | 0.37% | 4.41% | 4.41% | 6.04% |
Nexus Blend Funds
| (28/10/25) | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar High Risk Blend | 0.44% | 4.15% | 18.05% | 18.99% | 16.85% | 52.69% |
| US Dollar Medium-High Risk Blend | 0.24% | 3.79% | 17.62% | 17.98% | 15.85% | 50.90% |
| US Dollar Medium Risk Blend | -0.08% | 3.28% | 15.61% | 16.35% | 14.27% | 46.55% |
| US Dollar Medium-Low Risk Blend | -0.66% | 2.94% | 12.04% | 14.69% | 11.96% | 37.93% |
| US Dollar Low Risk Blend | -0.71% | 2.73% | 9.95% | 12.73% | 10.65% | 28.91% |
Blend Fund Performance (Year-to-Date)
Direct Fund Name
| (28/10/25) | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aditum Global Discovery | 0.25% | 1.98% | 15.20% | 16.95% | 12.51% | 36.40% |
| Aditum India Explorer Fund | -0.48% | 4.31% | 2.88% | 16.44% | - | - |
| Ashoka WhiteOak India Opportunities | 0.47% | 2.75% | 3.52% | -1.15% | -1.28% | - |
| BlackRock GF World Healthscience USD | 0.23% | 6.60% | 7.31% | 6.92% | -1.38% | 18.83% |
| Emirates Global Sukuk | 0.33% | 0.67% | 4.53% | 6.40% | 5.89% | 15.40% |
| Emirates MENA Fixed Income | 0.54% | 1.20% | 7.79% | 9.13% | 7.88% | 23.56% |
| Emirates MENA Top Companies | 0.23% | 1.29% | 5.23% | 5.13% | 8.58% | 16.06% |
| Franklin Gold and Precious Metals USD | -11.20% | -4.53% | 47.70% | 122.66% | 79.76% | 189.02% |
| Harris Associates Global Equity | 0.54% | 2.36% | 13.23% | 15.54% | 11.40% | 35.20% |
| Loomis Sayles Global Growth Equity | 1.53% | 3.02% | 26.32% | 23.75% | 27.35% | 82.56% |
| Loomis Sayles Multisector Income | 0.12% | 0.41% | 5.47% | 7.16% | 6.77% | 22.10% |
| PineBridge Japan Small Cap Equity | 0.30% | -4.43% | 10.40% | 21.31% | 22.33% | 26.74% |
| UBAM 30 Global Leaders Equity | 0.82% | 2.20% | 15.15% | 10.35% | 8.49% | 35.53% |
| iShares US Corporate bond Index | 0.25% | 1.59% | 5.92% | 8.11% | 7.65% | 21.12% |
| iShares Developed World Index | 1.69% | 3.44% | 22.63% | 20.28% | 20.60% | 66.63% |
Zurich Managed Funds
| (28/10/25) | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date (%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar High Risk Blend | 0.44% | 4.15% | 18.05% | 18.99% | 16.85% | 52.69% |
| US Dollar Medium-High Risk Blend | 0.24% | 3.79% | 17.62% | 17.98% | 15.85% | 50.90% |
| US Dollar Medium Risk Blend | -0.08% | 3.28% | 15.61% | 16.35% | 14.27% | 46.55% |
| US Dollar Medium-Low Risk Blend | -0.66% | 2.94% | 12.04% | 14.69% | 11.96% | 37.93% |
| US Dollar Low Risk Blend | -0.71% | 2.73% | 9.95% | 12.73% | 10.65% | 28.91% |
Zurich Mirror Funds
| (28/10/25) | 1 Week (%) | 1 Month (%) | 6 Months (%) | Year-to-Date(%) | 1 Year (%) | 2 Years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canaccord Genuity Balanced | 0.54% | 2.00% | 11.45% | 9.87% | 8.14% | 30.67% |
| Canaccord Genuity Growth | 0.64% | 2.45% | 14.77% | 11.13% | 9.63% | 35.90% |
| Canaccord Genuity Opportunity | 0.58% | 2.19% | 14.96% | 13.38% | 12.69% | 40.72% |
| Emirates Emerging Market Debt | 0.92% | -0.15% | 7.74% | 6.48% | 6.35% | 30.29% |
| Emirates Islamic Balanced Managed | -0.03% | 1.52% | 13.52% | 10.75% | 9.21% | 25.78% |
| Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity | 1.85% | 4.24% | 26.85% | 13.98% | 22.51% | 80.46% |
* Data is lagged by 1 day.
**Â Â Data is lagged by 2 days.